Analyst Mickle says the tension around the Strait of Hormuz is doing more than disrupting geopolitics. In his view, it is forcing countries to see how trade could be settled without relying on the petrodollar. He said that if this shift gathers pace, XRP, Ethereum, and a small number of other tokens could begin appearing in parts of global settlement activity.
From a Flight Out of the Dollar to a Flight Out of Currency
Mickle tied his argument to Ray Dalio’s long-cycle framework, focusing on the final phase of reserve currency decline. He argued the issue is no longer which fiat currency takes the dollar’s place. The larger question is whether any national currency keeps that role at all. For years, many assumed the Chinese yuan would eventually step into a stronger position. Mickle said that view has changed, and the move now may be away from currency itself rather than from one currency into another.
He added that even Dalio, long associated with gold, appears to be looking at a broader set of alternatives. Mickle described digital assets as an off-ramp from the global centralized fiat system into decentralized and neutral liquidity sources. That phrasing was central to his thesis. It also explains why he sees this as a structural shift, not a short-lived market theme.
Why XRP Enters the Discussion
Mickle was specific about the features that matter for sovereign or cross-border settlement rails: deep liquidity, international settlement capability, speed in moving value, and neutrality from single-government control. He said only a handful of tokens meet that standard, and named XRP as one of them. That, in his view, is why XRP could be strategically positioned at a global level if countries start testing alternatives to dollar-based settlement.
He contrasted digital assets with gold, which has historically served as a neutral store of value. Gold may hold that role, but physical metal cannot settle trade flows in real time. Mickle pointed to the traffic through the Strait itself: 130 ships a day. His point was simple. Gold cannot handle that kind of instant settlement demand, while digital assets can.
A Long-Term Trend Facing a Real-Time Test
Mickle did not frame dedollarization or deglobalization as near-term events. He called them multi-decade trends. Still, he argued that the technology needed to support those shifts is arriving just as pressure on the existing system is increasing, which is why this moment matters.
The article also pointed to a set of live developments: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran demanding crypto tolls, and direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsing. In that setting, Mickle said the scenario is no longer purely theoretical. It is being tested in real time, with the question no longer limited to price action but extending to how global trade might be settled under stress.