The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered its third week, and the first market to absorb the shock is energy. With the Strait of Hormuz described as nearly closed, about one-fifth of global oil supply is caught in the disruption. Oil has moved above $100 a barrel, U.S. gasoline retail prices are up roughly 65 cents a gallon since the war began, and the International Energy Agency said this could amount to the largest supply interruption in the history of the global oil market.
Trump says the end of the war will come when he “feels it”
Bloomberg reported that Donald Trump told Fox News he would declare the war over when he felt it “in his bones.” For markets used to pricing decisions through economic data and policy guidance, that leaves almost no usable signal. During a G7 call, European leaders pressed for an endgame plan and Trump replied that it could not be discussed over the phone. The public White House line is that military operations are planned for four to six weeks and are running ahead of schedule.
Signals from Washington remain mixed. David Sacks publicly called for declaring victory and pulling back. Vice President JD Vance neither endorsed nor criticized the campaign. Senator Lindsey Graham suggested ground forces could still be considered, while a Marine expeditionary force has already been moved into the region. Put together, the messages do not offer a clear timeline for de-escalation.
Iran’s demands are clear, but room for compromise is narrow
Iran’s position is more defined. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said, “We will seek compensation,” and the country’s strategic posture is not centered on defeating the U.S. militarily but on enduring the conflict. Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are exploring channels to cool tensions, yet European officials believe Tehran’s two core demands—war compensation and guarantees against future attacks—are structurally difficult for Washington to accept.
Gulf states are also in an awkward spot. According to the report, they complain that the U.S. did not consult them adequately before the war, and prior investment commitments have not translated into meaningful influence over how the conflict unfolds.
Oil, inflation, the Fed, and Bitcoin are now moving together
The report notes that every $10 increase in oil prices could add roughly 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to U.S. CPI, depending on how long the spike lasts. The Federal Reserve has already tied rate cuts to improving inflation data. If energy prices stay elevated, the rate-cut timeline gets pushed back. That matters across risk markets.
Gold is drawing conventional safe-haven demand during the geopolitical shock, but Bitcoin is harder to classify. If the dominant macro narrative is rising inflation, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar, risk assets usually come under pressure. The same report points out that because the U.S. is now a net energy exporter, higher oil prices no longer translate into a simple negative for the dollar. That structural change helps explain why some analysts see room for the dollar to strengthen instead.
In that setup, Bitcoin’s role depends on whether traders treat it as a hedge or as a risk asset. Over the past two years, both readings have appeared at different times. For now, the market is staring at a difficult mix: oil above $100, no visible war endgame, delayed rate-cut expectations, and a relatively firm dollar. The short-term direction of pressure on crypto is fairly clear. The duration is not.