Hyperliquid has officially expanded beyond spot and perpetual trading with the mainnet launch of HIP-4 Outcome Markets, a new contract framework designed for onchain prediction markets. Activated on May 2, 2026, the rollout brings fully collateralized event trading into the same account environment where users already manage perpetual futures and spot positions. The first live products are daily BTC binary contracts, a clear signal that Hyperliquid intends to compete directly with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi for event-driven trading volume.
The launch marks a significant product extension for the protocol. Rather than adapting its existing perpetual infrastructure to fit event contracts, Hyperliquid built HIP-4 as a separate primitive tailored specifically for binary and multi-outcome markets. That distinction matters because prediction markets behave very differently from continuous leveraged products. Election outcomes, macroeconomic releases, and specific crypto events resolve discretely, not along a continuous price curve. HIP-4 is therefore structured to settle to exactly 0 or 1 at expiry, avoiding the mechanics used in perpetuals such as funding rates and liquidation engines.
A Different Design From HIP-3
Hyperliquid contrasted HIP-4 with HIP-3, the earlier framework launched on mainnet on October 13, 2025. HIP-3 supports builder-deployed perpetual futures tied to stocks, commodities, foreign exchange, and real-world assets. Those products rely on continuous oracle updates and are designed for leveraged, ongoing price discovery. HIP-4, by comparison, is intended for event contracts whose outcomes are fixed and binary at expiration.
This technical separation solves an important market-structure problem. Perpetuals can handle gradual price movement, but they are poorly suited for sudden event resolution, such as an election result or a headline-driven macro release. HIP-4 uses fixed-range settlement and removes the need for continuous funding payments or forced liquidations. As a result, the product behaves more like a direct probability market than a leveraged derivative.
Users trade by buying YES or NO positions that reflect the implied probability of a given outcome. During trading, prices can move between 0.001 and 0.999. At expiry, contracts are settled based on an authorized oracle source. Hyperliquid’s example is straightforward: if a trader buys YES at 0.60 USDH and the event occurs, the position settles at 1 and the trader earns 0.40 per contract. If the event does not occur, the purchased contract expires worthless and the trader loses the entry cost.
Zero Fees to Open Positions
One of HIP-4’s most aggressive features is its fee structure. Opening or minting an outcome position carries no fee, a choice that appears aimed squarely at attracting users and liquidity away from incumbent prediction market platforms. Fees are charged only when users close, burn, or settle a position. In addition, market makers who would normally receive rebates on outcome orders instead face a zero-fee treatment in this segment.
Hyperliquid is also carrying over its broader staking-linked discount model. Existing fee reductions still apply in HIP-4, including a potential 20% taker fee reduction for eligible participants. This matters because the protocol is not positioning outcome markets as a separate silo. Instead, it is trying to create a unified trading environment in which users can move across spot, perps, and event contracts while benefiting from shared fee tiers and account-level efficiencies.
That integrated structure could be a meaningful competitive advantage. According to the launch details, volume and open interest generated by outcome markets will count toward protocol-wide fee tiers. In practice, this means active prediction market traders may qualify for lower rates on perpetual futures through the same account, strengthening the incentive to keep capital and activity inside the Hyperliquid ecosystem.
Fully Collateralized in USDH
All HIP-4 positions are fully collateralized using USDH, Hyperliquid’s native stablecoin. Because positions are fully backed, users are not exposed to liquidation risk. This is a major structural difference from leveraged perpetual trading, where margin erosion can trigger forced closure. In the case of outcome markets, the capital at risk is simply the amount committed to the position.
Hyperliquid also tied the collateral model to its internal economic loop. Settlement demand for outcome contracts increases usage of USDH, and that usage, according to the protocol’s existing mechanics, feeds into HYPE buybacks. In other words, HIP-4 is not only a new product category but also an additional source of stablecoin utility and protocol-level economic activity.
Initial Markets and Market Launch Process
For now, the first wave of HIP-4 markets is curated and deployed by validators. The initial live contracts focus on recurring daily BTC price-threshold events, with markets resetting at 2 a.m. Hyperliquid said it plans to expand into a broader range of categories, including politics, sports, macroeconomic data releases, crypto-native events, and entertainment.
Each market begins with an approximately 15-minute single-price clearing auction. During that period, users submit limit orders, but no trades are executed immediately. Instead, the market clears at the price that maximizes matched volume. Any orders left unfilled are then rolled into continuous trading on the same central limit order book that powers Hypercore’s spot and perpetual markets. That design gives outcome markets a launch process intended to improve early price discovery while keeping them integrated with Hyperliquid’s established trading infrastructure.
Permissionless Deployment Comes Later
Although current markets are validator-launched, Hyperliquid plans to introduce permissionless builder deployment in a later phase, following the pattern previously used for HIP-3. Developers who want to launch their own outcome markets will need to stake 1,000,000 HYPE per slot. That requirement is substantial and appears designed to align incentives while discouraging spam or low-quality market creation.
The stake is not merely symbolic. It is explicitly slashable and can be burned if validators determine that a deployer manipulated an oracle, introduced invalid state transitions, or caused prolonged downtime. A single staked slot can support rolling and recurring markets and becomes reusable after settlement. This creates a framework for permissionless expansion while still imposing accountability on market creators.
The model reflects Hyperliquid’s effort to balance openness with control. Prediction markets depend heavily on reliable rules, dispute-resistant settlement, and trustworthy outcome resolution. By requiring a large HYPE stake and allowing penalties for misconduct, the protocol is attempting to create a system where builders can participate without turning market deployment into an unchecked free-for-all.
Native Integration Inside Hypercore
Architecturally, HIP-4 runs natively inside Hypercore, rather than as an external application layered on top of the protocol. As a result, outcome markets use the same matching engine, the same order types, and the same performance envelope as Hyperliquid’s other markets. The platform says the system shares throughput of roughly 200,000 orders per second, underscoring its pitch that prediction markets should not require users to trade off execution quality for onchain access.
Outcome positions also live inside the same wallet as a trader’s spot and perpetual holdings and are incorporated into unified portfolio margin. This cross-product account model is one of Hyperliquid’s defining features, and extending it to event contracts may help reduce friction for existing users who want to add prediction markets to their trading strategies.
Several frontends have already moved to support the new product. Hyperliquid identified Outcomexyz and Stratium as early integrations, with Stratium specifically placing HIP-4 outcome markets alongside HIP-3 perpetuals in a single interface. Additional dashboard tools, including the loris.tools suite, are also expected to add HIP-4 data coverage.
A Direct Push Into the Prediction Market Race
With HIP-4, Hyperliquid is making a deliberate push into one of crypto’s most active adjacent sectors. The protocol’s strategy is clear: combine onchain settlement, unified accounts, deep exchange-style infrastructure, and zero-fee position opening to capture traders who might otherwise use specialized prediction platforms. The launch does not yet represent a fully open market-creation environment, but it establishes the core framework and gives Hyperliquid a new vertical with room to expand.
Whether the protocol can win meaningful market share from incumbents will depend on liquidity, oracle reliability, breadth of listed events, and the speed at which permissionless deployment becomes viable. Still, the initial structure shows that Hyperliquid is not approaching prediction markets as an experimental side feature. It is embedding them into the center of its trading stack and using pricing and infrastructure to make a direct competitive play.