An IMF working paper argues that stablecoins can become a pressure amplifier in economies where access to US dollars is restricted and exchange rates are fixed or tightly managed. Written by IMF economist Brandon Joel Tan, the research says dollar-pegged tokens may give households and businesses a parallel route to dollar exposure when banks and official exchange channels cannot meet demand.
Stablecoin prices can reveal hidden dollar shortages
Tan’s model focuses on countries where the official exchange rate does not fully reflect real demand for foreign currency. In that setting, stablecoins function as easier-to-access dollar-like claims. A short point matters here. Their market prices are public, easy to track, and can quickly become a visible signal that dollar shortages are worsening when the official rate drifts far from conditions in the market.
The paper says that visibility can carry consequences beyond pricing. If people start reading stablecoin moves as evidence that the domestic currency is under strain, shifts out of local money can happen together rather than gradually. The study warns that, under stress, stablecoin price movements may help trigger coordinated currency runs as confidence in the local currency weakens.
Paper proposes temporary limits during crisis conditions
The policy section does not treat stablecoins as an isolated problem. Instead, it links them to exchange-rate distortions, foreign-currency shortages, and capital controls. Tan recommends that regulators consider temporary restrictions on large or panic-driven stablecoin transactions during currency crises, with the aim of limiting disorderly outflows. In markets that already have parallel FX activity, blockchain-based stablecoins can widen access to alternative dollar channels outside the official system.
Latin America examples show use in pricing and savings behavior
The paper points to recent cases in Latin America. On June 9, 2025, retailers at Bolivian airports reportedly used USDT as a reference point for pricing goods, even though settlement still took place in US dollars or the local currency, bolivianos. Argentina is cited as another case. As the peso lost value and capital controls remained tight, residents turned to stablecoins as a way to protect savings.
In 2024, some Argentines used so-called “crypto caves,” underground exchanges where pesos were swapped for dollar-backed stablecoins at rates closer to the parallel market than to regulated channels. The paper presents these examples as evidence that stablecoins are no longer limited to speculative crypto activity; in some markets, they are already part of everyday currency behavior.
FSB warns of monetary and capital-flow risks
Regulators outside the IMF have raised similar concerns. The Financial Stability Board has said that large-scale adoption of dollar stablecoins could increase risks for emerging markets, including faster currency substitution, weaker monetary policy transmission, and the bypassing of capital-flow rules. The FSB also called on policymakers to monitor stablecoin growth closely and assess liquidity and operational vulnerabilities as these assets become more connected to domestic and cross-border financial systems.
For economies with fixed or heavily managed exchange rates, the paper suggests stablecoins may serve as both an access tool and a stress signal. That combination is what puts them at the center of policy debate.