Prediction markets face a formidable adversary: sovereign regulators. On May 25, 2026, Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs branded Polymarket an "online gambling site disguised as a prediction market" and imposed a nationwide block. The trigger was a contract created just four days earlier, allowing users to bet on whether President Prabowo Subianto would resign before his term ends in October 2029.
Presidential Bet Sparks Immediate Action
On May 21, Polymarket listed a contract on Prabowo's early exit, offering three expiry dates: May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026. Trading volume exceeded $46,000, with implied probabilities of 1%, 2% and 18% respectively. The contract was promoted on X, accelerating its spread across Indonesian social media and news outlets — and accelerating the government's response.
Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) moved swiftly. Director General of Digital Space Supervision Alexander Sabar stated bluntly: "The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia." Authorities emphasized that using crypto or blockchain does not change the platform's classification under Indonesian law: allowing users to wager on uncertain outcomes remains gambling. Komdigi also said it would track social media accounts promoting Polymarket, an escalation beyond simple website blocking.
This is not Indonesia's first digital gambling crackdown. Since October 2024, authorities have frozen over 33,000 bank accounts and blocked some 3.4 million gambling-related websites. Yet online gambling remains rampant. According to Indonesia's Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center, transactions linked to online gambling totaled approximately 286 trillion rupiah (about $16 billion) in 2025.
Indonesia Joins India, Brazil and Singapore in Blocking Polymarket
Indonesia is not acting alone. Komdigi confirmed that Singapore, Brazil and India have all blocked Polymarket, while Taiwan, Thailand, China and Japan have imposed access restrictions under local law. Polymarket is also blocked in Ukraine with no legal path to return.
India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology issued a formal blocking order on May 21, just one day before Indonesia's move, classifying Polymarket as prohibited online money gaming. A separate order targeted Kalshi, the US-regulated prediction exchange. As of mid-2026, Polymarket is restricted or banned in more than 33 jurisdictions, with regulatory actions accelerating sharply this year. Reasons fall into three categories: bans on unlicensed gambling, bans on political betting, and bans protecting state betting monopolies.
Indonesia's broad definition — covering any platform that lets users wager on uncertain real-world events — could extend to other prediction market platforms, say analysts. Polymarket is separately seeking regulatory approval in Japan by 2030, where strict gambling rules currently limit most betting outside state-sanctioned activities.
Asian Regulators See Through Blockchain Wrapper
The near-simultaneous actions by Indonesia and India are not coincidental. Regulatory analysts note that major Asian jurisdictions now treat crypto-based prediction markets the same as traditional online casinos, regardless of blockchain infrastructure. Both Indonesian and Indian authorities explicitly argued that the technical delivery mechanism does not change the fundamental nature of wagering on uncertain outcomes, citing public protection — especially of younger digital users — as justification.
For Polymarket and Kalshi, the strategic implications are stark. The addressable market in Asia, home to nearly 4 billion people, is shrinking faster than any new jurisdiction opens. Japan's 2030 target may represent the last realistic entry point into a major Asian market, and that timeline remains uncertain. The political dimension adds further risk: contracts allowing bets on heads of state leaving power are uniquely provocative. The Prabowo contract's 18% probability for a December exit was enough to trigger a national block — a precedent that will not be lost on other governments.