Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Kominfo) announced on the evening of May 24 that it had blocked the prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying it as an "illegal online gambling platform." The immediate trigger was Polymarket listing a market on May 21 that allowed users to bet on when President Prabowo Subianto would leave office. Prabowo's term is legally set to expire in 2029, and the market quickly went viral on Indonesian social media, drawing high-level government scrutiny.
Betting Market Crosses Political and Regulatory Red Lines
Just a day earlier, on May 20, Prabowo announced a plan to centralize state control over exports of commodities like coal and palm oil, a move that had already rattled investors. The betting market on his departure, appearing the next day, proved too sensitive. As the world's largest Muslim-majority country, Indonesia's criminal code explicitly bans all forms of gambling, online or offline. Alexander Sabar, a Kominfo official, stated in the announcement that Polymarket's operations "involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes," thus violating the law. The government is now conducting a comprehensive review of all social media accounts linked to Polymarket.
Asia's Regulatory Headwinds: South Korea Acted First, Global Views Diverge
Indonesia is not the first Asian nation to crack down on Polymarket. Previously, South Korea's Korea Gambling Crime Prevention Commission launched a formal review, suspecting the platform violates local anti-gambling laws, with markets on the June local elections being a focal point. Yet Polymarket has received a different treatment in the United States, where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved its return as a "designated contract market" offering regulated prediction contracts. This juxtaposition of "legal vs. illegal" for the same platform underscores the global lack of consensus on the legal status of prediction markets.
Regulatory Gray Zone in Asia Pacific, Indonesia's Move May Set a Precedent
Prediction markets—allowing users to wager on sports, elections, and even geopolitical events—constitute a multi-billion-dollar industry facing wildly disparate regulatory responses. In the Asia-Pacific region, most countries lack clear legal frameworks. For instance, in some jurisdictions, prediction markets operate in a regulatory vacuum, neither formally classified as gambling nor overseen by any federal regulator like the U.S. CFTC. Indonesia's tough blockade could serve as a model for other emerging Asian markets, further squeezing the space for prediction platforms in the region.
Polymarket has not yet responded to Reuters' request for comment. Indonesian authorities have vowed to continue sweeping social media accounts linked to the platform. Prabowo's government, while pushing economic reforms, has demonstrated a high alertness to politically sensitive content, adding more uncertainty to the future of prediction markets in Asia.