Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs has officially blocked access to prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying its contracts as violations of the country’s online gambling laws. The move is part of a broader crackdown on internet-based betting activities. Officials stated the platform fundamentally involves wagering on uncertain outcomes, indistinguishable from gambling.
Presidential Exit Bet: One Contract Sparks a Crackdown
The trigger was a contract launched on May 21, 2026, allowing users to bet on a specific timeline for President Prabowo Subianto stepping down before his term ends in 2029. The market quickly gained traction on Indonesian social media. Reuters reported that trading activity focused on potential exit dates within 2026. This political wager soon attracted regulatory scrutiny.
Ministry official Alexander Sabar told local media that Polymarket’s structure involves betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, directly contravening Indonesian gambling regulations. The government has added the platform to its list of banned online betting services. Sabar emphasized that using crypto infrastructure does not change the legal classification of prediction-based betting. Authorities are also reviewing social media accounts linked to Polymarket and signaled potential restrictions on similar platforms. Since 2024, Indonesia has blocked millions of websites connected to online gambling.
Global Regulatory Alignment: Brazil, Argentina Act First
Indonesia’s action aligns with a wider international trend. In April 2026, Brazil blocked multiple prediction market platforms citing derivatives trading and gambling concerns. Argentina followed in March 2026 with court orders requiring internet providers and app stores to restrict access. All three nations apply the same legal reasoning: treating prediction contracts as unlicensed gambling, not financial forecasting tools.
U.S. State-Level Regulators Also Apply Pressure
In the United States, state regulators continue to challenge prediction markets under gambling laws. Courts have rejected attempts by platforms to block enforcement actions in specific jurisdictions. Polymarket now faces restrictions across multiple regions. The consistent regulatory rationale: betting on future events is gambling, regardless of the underlying technology.