In February this year, Citrini published The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, a report that the firm repeatedly described as a “thought experiment.” Even with that caveat, the paper was linked to a sell-off in U.S. software stocks and intensified concerns around job losses in Silicon Valley. In April, Citrini’s Analyst#3 traveled to the Strait of Hormuz and produced a field report on the contested maritime chokepoint. More recently, Citrini semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately identified the importance of copper foil in the AI and semiconductor supply chains, helping drive a new wave of investment interest. Behind these reports is James van Geelen, a founder who did not come from a conventional finance background.
How Citrini reached the crypto audience
For many in crypto, Citrini first became more visible around May, before the listing of Cerebras (CBRS). At the time, Citrini posted that fund managers were conducting early price discovery through Trade.xyz, a platform in the Hyperliquid ecosystem. The post was then reposted and confirmed by Trade.xyz founder Shokun. For a research account that had already produced The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, Citrini’s influence in traditional finance was already clear; its endorsement of Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz’s role in pre-market pricing for U.S. equities also brought more attention to crypto-based RWA platforms, U.S. pre-market contract platforms and on-chain U.S. stock trading platforms. The source article described this as having helped push forward this year’s “U.S. stock RWA asset boom” to a certain degree.
In that sense, Citrini has acted as a warning signal to traditional finance. Its message has been that crypto players, once viewed as peripheral, are now looking directly at traditional finance as a major target market. The framework behind that view is tied to van Geelen’s long-running emphasis on “second-order thinking” and long-termism.
From UCLA and emergency medicine to healthcare entrepreneurship
James van Geelen, now 33, does not fit the profile of a standard finance founder. Public information shows that he graduated from UCLA with dual degrees in biology and psychology. He also worked in downtown Los Angeles as an emergency medical technician and caregiver. The source article links this elite university background and emergency medical work to his preference for efficiency and planning. Van Geelen has said, “If you don’t have a plan, you’re going to have a bad time.” He has also described himself as a “genius musician,” even though he has not produced widely recognized work in that field.
Van Geelen’s original path would have taken him toward becoming a physician, but his career moved into entrepreneurship instead. He first founded a healthcare company and sold it to a private equity fund, allowing him to step away from the “elite school—employment—professional manager” track. He later founded Citrini. In a 2023 episode of the Odd Lots podcast, he also said that he had co-founded one of the earliest medical marijuana dispensaries in Connecticut. These experiences show that he was not a rigid, step-by-step “proper doctor” in the way many might imagine.
A report that shook U.S. software stocks
In 2018, after securing a certain amount of initial capital, van Geelen began his personal investment career under the name Citrinitas Capital. He captured early opportunities in AI, including Nvidia, and in GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovy. In December 2025, according to PitchBook information cited in the source, Citrini completed a seed round of about $5.05 million. The company had only around 10 employees and remained privately held. Then, in February this year, van Geelen and Alap Shah, who came from traditional finance, co-wrote The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, the report that brought Citrini into the center of market discussion.
Although Citrini stressed that the report was a thought experiment and scenario exercise rather than a prediction, its references to “large-scale white-collar unemployment, declining consumer spending and economic contraction (Ghost GDP)” still triggered fear in capital markets. Delivery, payment and software stocks fell sharply. IBM recorded its largest single-day decline of 2025 on February 23. American Express and Blackstone each fell more than 8%. The broader software sector dropped nearly 5%. DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One and Apollo Global Management Inc. each fell as much as 3% at one point. Multiple U.S. stock sectors were pulled into the sell-off, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one stage dropped more than 800 points. Alap Shah later stated publicly that his investment stance was “short and long”: shorting companies he believed would be disrupted by AI while holding semiconductor technology stocks that benefit from AI. Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal were among the overseas media outlets that followed the market turmoil connected to the report.
The Strait of Hormuz field report and second-order thinking
On April 6 this year, Citrini’s “Analyst#3” went to the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and disclosed a series of first-hand observations. The report described the operating model of what it called Iran’s “toll station” in the strait and presented several counterintuitive conclusions: shipping volume through the strait would gradually rise regardless of how the situation developed, and Iran did not want to close the Strait of Hormuz. The report further stated that traffic volumes would continue to increase, that the diplomatic-style “toll station” operated in a surprisingly orderly manner, that shipping volume would still continue to increase even if ground operations began, and that the conflict was not a simple two-sided confrontation but a restructuring of the balance among multiple parties. Geographic disputes within great-power competition are also part of Citrini’s research range.
When asked why the company was named “citrinitas,” van Geelen said the inspiration came from George Soros’s The Alchemy of Finance. “It is actually a stage in alchemy, but what most people don’t know is that in this transitional stage, lead begins to turn into gold, but has not completely become gold.” This corresponds to the type of moment he likes most: seeing the birth of “gold” before others have noticed that the lead has already begun to change.
An anonymous team focused on long-term supertrends
Based on Citrini’s previous content and public information, the firm focuses on long-term “supertrends,” including AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics and modern warfare. It also aims to provide executable “baskets of investment references” and tactical macro trading ideas. Its research leans toward long-term structural changes rather than short-term trades. On its Substack homepage, the firm emphasizes practical value and tells readers: “You will no longer have to ask, ‘What is the trade?’” Citrini also frequently uses scenario analysis to help readers understand second- and third-order effects. Van Geelen once said: “Don’t always think about what you think will happen. Instead, think about the things that must happen. How will the market’s reaction change reality? What secondary effects will there be? What are the obstacles that allow a trend to continue? Where will capital flow in order to overcome those obstacles?”
The source article notes that during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, he bought overnight financing rate call options and gained nearly 50 times his investment. In December last year, before the United States launched military action in Venezuela, he shared his views on opportunities in Venezuelan sovereign bonds. Since the beginning of this year, Citrini has added several independent analysts, including macro analyst Nick Reece, Korean semiconductor industry analyst @jukan05 and AI chip industry analyst @zephyr_z9. These hires have helped fill gaps in industry detail, technical processes and shifts in sector direction. The firm currently retains a production model driven by its founder and supported by an anonymous team of elite contributors.