Citrini has repeatedly appeared at the intersection of traditional finance, macro research and crypto markets this year. In February, the firm published The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, a report that triggered what was described as a wave of selling in U.S. software stocks and intensified fears around Silicon Valley job losses. In April, Citrini’s Analyst#3 traveled to the Strait of Hormuz and produced a field report that used first-hand observations to describe the operations of this conflict-sensitive maritime chokepoint. More recently, semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately highlighted the importance of copper foil in the AI and semiconductor industries, helping drive a new round of investment enthusiasm around the theme.
Behind Citrini is James van Geelen, a founder who did not come from a conventional finance background. Van Geelen holds dual degrees in biology and psychology from UCLA, previously worked as an emergency medical technician and caregiver, and founded a healthcare company before moving into investing. Odaily’s profile frames his career as a cross-disciplinary path: medical training, entrepreneurship, a company sale, personal investing and, eventually, the creation of Citrini.
How Citrini Entered the Crypto Conversation
Crypto market participants first began paying closer attention to Citrini around May, shortly before the listing of Cerebras (CBRS). At the time, Citrini posted that fund managers were using Trade.xyz, a platform in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, to conduct price discovery ahead of the U.S. equity listing. The post was later reposted and confirmed by Trade.xyz founder Shokun. For a research account that had already gained strong influence in traditional finance through The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, its endorsement of Hyperliquid’s ecosystem and Trade.xyz’s role in pre-market U.S. stock pricing brought more attention to crypto-based RWA platforms, U.S. pre-market contract platforms and on-chain stock trading venues. The original article describes this as one factor that helped push this year’s wave of interest in U.S. equity RWA assets.
In that framing, Citrini functions as a signal to traditional finance that crypto-native players are now aiming at a much larger market. The argument is not presented as a single trading call, but as part of van Geelen’s broader preference for “second-order thinking” and long-termism. The firm’s research often focuses on where capital, technology and policy interact before the broader market has fully absorbed the consequences.
From UCLA and Emergency Care to Citrinitas Capital
Van Geelen, now 33, did not begin his career anywhere near artificial intelligence. Public information cited in the source shows that he graduated from UCLA with degrees in biology and psychology and worked in downtown Los Angeles as an emergency medical technician and caregiver. That combination of an elite university education and emergency medical experience shaped a personality focused on efficiency and planning. He once said, “If you don’t have a plan, you’re gonna have a bad time.” He has also referred to himself as a “genius musician,” although the original article notes that he does not have notable works to show for it.
His original path appeared to point toward becoming a doctor, but he instead moved into entrepreneurship. He first founded a healthcare company and sold it to a private equity fund, which allowed him to step away from the conventional route of elite school, employment and professional management. He later founded Citrini. Van Geelen also mentioned on the Odd Lots podcast in 2023 that he had co-founded one of the earliest medical marijuana dispensaries in Connecticut, further underscoring that his career did not follow a rigid medical-track template.
In 2018, after securing some starting capital, van Geelen began his personal investment career under the name Citrinitas Capital. He later captured early opportunities in AI, including Nvidia, and in GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovy. In December 2025, according to PitchBook information cited in the source, Citrini completed a seed round of about $5.05 million. The firm had only around 10 employees and remained privately held.
A “Thought Experiment” That Hit U.S. Equities
In February this year, van Geelen and Alap Shah, who came from the traditional finance world, co-authored The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis. They repeatedly stressed that the report was a “thought experiment” and a scenario exercise rather than a predictive analysis. Even so, its discussion of large-scale white-collar unemployment, declining consumer spending and economic contraction described as “Ghost GDP” stirred deep concern in capital markets. Delivery, payment and software stocks all fell sharply. IBM recorded its largest single-day decline of 2025 on February 23. American Express and Blackstone each dropped more than 8%, while the broader software sector fell nearly 5%. DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One and Apollo Global Management Inc. each fell as much as 3% at one point. Multiple U.S. equity sectors were caught in the selloff, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point dropped more than 800 points.
Alap Shah later publicly described the investment stance as “short and long”: shorting companies they believed would be disrupted by AI, while holding semiconductor-related technology stocks that would benefit from AI. The source states that Citrini’s report wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. equity market value in a short period and prompted follow-up coverage from overseas media outlets including Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.
The Strait of Hormuz Report and the Citrinitas Name
On April 6, Citrini’s “Analyst#3” traveled to the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in the U.S.-Iran conflict context, to conduct field research. The report disclosed first-hand observations and described the operating model of what it called Iran’s “toll booth” in the strait. It also presented several conclusions that ran counter to conventional assumptions: shipping volume through the strait would gradually rise regardless of how the situation evolved; Iran did not want to close the Strait of Hormuz; traffic order in the strait was in fact highly regulated; even if ground operations began, shipping volume could continue to increase; and the conflict was not a simple two-sided confrontation, but a multi-party game and a reshaping of the regional structure.
Van Geelen has also explained the origin of the name “citrinitas.” He said the inspiration came from George Soros’s The Alchemy of Finance. Citrinitas is a stage in alchemy: during this transition, lead begins turning into gold but has not yet fully become gold. Van Geelen described that as the moment he most wants to act — before others notice the change in the lead, he wants to recognize the emergence of gold.
Second-Order Thinking and an Expanding Analyst Bench
Citrini’s investment style is closely linked to van Geelen’s cross-disciplinary background. Based on the firm’s previous content and public information, it focuses on long-term “super trends” such as AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics and modern warfare. The firm aims to provide executable baskets of investment references and tactical macro trading ideas, while its research leans toward long-term structural change rather than short-term trading. On its Substack homepage, the firm emphasizes practical use and states that the reader “will never need to ask ‘what’s the trade?’ again.”
Citrini also frequently uses scenario analysis to help readers understand second- and third-order effects. Van Geelen has said: “Don’t just think about what you think is going to happen. Think about what must happen. How will the market’s reaction change reality? What are the second-order effects? What are the roadblocks to that trend continuing? Where will capital flow to overcome those roadblocks?” In previous examples cited by the source, he bought overnight financing rate call options during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023 and earned nearly 50 times the investment. Last December, before the United States launched military action involving Venezuela, he shared views on investment opportunities in Venezuelan sovereign bonds.
Since the beginning of this year, Citrini has added several independent analysts, including macro analyst Nick Reece, Korean semiconductor industry analyst @jukan05 and AI chip industry analyst @zephyr_z9. The additions helped fill gaps in industrial details, technical processes and industry trend research. The firm currently continues to operate through a founder-driven model combined with collaboration from an anonymous elite analyst team.