Bitcoin may have more downside ahead. CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital, said the asset is already “convincingly in deep bear market territory” and could fall another 30% during 2026. In comments emailed to CoinDesk, he tied that view to the start of the Iran war and to what he described as a strengthening four-year bitcoin cycle.
According to the source material, bitcoin has already lost nearly half its value since reaching a record high of more than $126,000 in October last year. At the time of writing, it was trading around $68,000. A market quote shown at the top of the article also listed bitcoin at $64,168.87, reflecting the same broad decline even if intraday prices varied.
Why the halving cycle remains central to the bear-market view
Crypto markets have long revolved around the so-called four-year cycle, a pattern in which prices rally, peak, fall sharply, and then recover around bitcoin’s scheduled halving events. The latest halving took place in April 2024, cutting the pace of new supply once again.
Bitcoin miners now receive 3.125 BTC per block, down from the original 50 BTC at launch after four halving events. Historically, bitcoin has often reached its cycle peak roughly 16 to 18 months after a halving, with a bear market lasting about a year after that. If that pattern still holds, the October peak last year lines up closely with the April 2024 halving timeline.
Zheng says retail behavior keeps reinforcing the pattern
Zheng argued that the cycle is proving extremely hard to break because investor psychology keeps repeating. In his view, retail traders tend to buy into hype and sell during panic. That sequence is familiar, and in crypto it has repeatedly amplified both the uptrend and the drawdown.
Because of that, he said bitcoin still trades more like a speculative asset than a safe-haven asset such as gold. His reading of the market also rests on a slower-moving institutional story: adoption by institutions, he said, remains limited and is advancing at a gradual pace.
Forced selling risk from treasury firms remains a concern
Zheng also pointed to a possible source of added pressure if the bear market continues. Some companies that bought bitcoin as a treasury asset may need to sell part of their holdings to meet debt-servicing requirements. That kind of selling, he warned, could intensify the downturn.
He estimated that the combined size of crypto ETFs and digital asset treasury companies is only about 10% of the total crypto market. Even so, he sees the risk of a negative feedback loop if debt-related selling starts to hit a weak market. The source does not name specific firms or provide balance-sheet details, but the argument from ZX Squared is clear: the four-year cycle still appears intact, and the bear phase may not be over.