Iran formally rejected a 15-point ceasefire proposal brokered by the United States this week, sending Brent crude above $108 a barrel and adding fresh pressure to global risk assets. By early Friday afternoon Eastern time, Brent had eased back to around $104 to $106, while West Texas Intermediate moved toward $95. Heating oil rose more than 6% intraday.
The proposal was passed to Tehran by the Trump administration through Pakistani intermediaries on or around March 24. It included a 30-day ceasefire, sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program, tighter IAEA monitoring, and guaranteed shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the package as “one-sided” and “maximalist,” while Iranian officials said the country would end the war on its own terms.
Tehran’s counterdemands keep Hormuz tensions in focus
Iran answered with five demands: a complete halt to U.S. and Israeli strikes, verified protections against renewed attacks, war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and a full end to sanctions. That gap in positions quickly changed market pricing. Brent had already dropped about 11% from a $112 peak earlier in the week after news of the proposal and a temporary U.S. pause in strikes, but the rejection reversed that move.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central pressure point. The report says the waterway, which handles about 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows, has been effectively shut to normal traffic since March 2, when IRGC forces began threatening vessels passing through it. Shipping volume has fallen by more than 95% from normal levels. Qatar’s LNG exports are running about 17% below capacity, Kuwait has declared force majeure, and analysts estimate a prolonged disruption could remove 13 million to 14 million barrels per day from global supply.
War-driven energy shock hits equities
The conflict began in late February 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Iranian targets, including energy infrastructure. Before the war, Brent crude traded around $60 to $70 a barrel. During the sharpest phase of the crisis, it reached $120. Alternative pipeline routes through Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq can offset part of the disruption, but the report says they cannot fully replace seaborne volumes in the near term.
U.S. equities were under clear pressure on Friday afternoon. By 2 p.m. Eastern time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 603.26 points to 45,356.85. The S&P 500 dropped 86.18 points to 6,390.98. The Nasdaq Composite lost 404.39 points to 21,003.69, while the NYSE Composite declined 132.38 points to 21,711.59. Energy stocks have outperformed the broader market since late February, with Exxon-Mobil and Chevron both up about 35%.
Trump says talks continue while warning of escalation
President Donald Trump said strikes on Iranian energy sites could expand if ceasefire efforts fail. In a Truth Social post, he wrote that, at the request of the Iranian government, he was pausing the “period of Energy Plant destruction” for 10 days, until 8 p.m. Eastern time on April 6, 2026. He also said talks were still underway and were “going very well,” despite what he called inaccurate media reports. The same day, Trump said he planned to deliver a “big speech” on the economy in Miami and added: “Our Military Operation in Iran is going GREAT!”
The report also notes that central banks in Europe, Asia, and the Americas are dealing with renewed inflation pressure tied to energy prices. Analysts drew comparisons to the oil crises of the 1970s in terms of scale and pointed to potential knock-on effects across medicine, semiconductors, and consumer goods supply chains.