Iran's Mehr News Agency on June 12 leaked a draft Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran, with a key provision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. The US would simultaneously lift oil sanctions, release approximately $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and withdraw forces from the region. Following the release, WTI crude plunged 4.6% to $83.6, while Bitcoin bounced back to around $64,000.
A 30-Day Countdown: from Draft to Reality
The draft sets a 60-day final negotiation window for nuclear and security issues, with an initial release of $24 billion in frozen assets. Iran's Foreign Ministry quickly stated that Tehran had not yet made a final decision, and the agreement still requires approval from relevant authorities. This leaves the 30-day timeline for reopening the strait uncertain.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global crude supply. After Iran blocked the strait in March, oil prices surged above $80; the International Energy Agency (IEA) called it the largest supply disruption in global oil history, and Shell's CEO warned of a 12 billion barrel gap. If the draft is finalized, the supply crisis and inflationary pressure would ease significantly.
Market Ripple Effects
WTI's 4.6% intraday drop reflects expectation of de-escalation, but the market awaits final signing. Bitcoin initially fell then recovered, retaking $64,000, with short sellers suffering $270 million in liquidations in 24 hours. Geopolitical easing and risk appetite shifts are driving short-term crypto volatility.
Trump declared the 'US-Iran war over' on June 12, but Iran insists the MOU is not yet signed. Talks in the next 48 hours will determine further direction for oil and risk assets.