Iran Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has become an unlikely voice in market chatter after describing Trump’s Truth Social posts on Iran as a “reverse indicator.” In an March 30 post on X that later drew 14.8 million views, Ghalibaf warned that pre-market “news” or “Truth” often serves as a setup for profit-taking, adding that traders should fade the move: short the pump, buy the dump.
Markets moved in a way that seemed to validate the point within hours. At 6:00 PM ET, S&P 500 futures opened down nearly 1%. By 11:00 PM, those losses had been erased. Trump then posted on Truth Social that “great progress has been made” in talks with what he called “a new, and more reasonable, regime” in Iran. The S&P rose more than 100 points from its overnight low, adding about $900 billion in market value.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key crypto variable
Bitcoin followed the same script. After Trump’s “great progress” message, BTC climbed to $67,800, while total liquidations across exchanges reached $340 million. The move later reversed after Iran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and repeated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed.
QCP Capital said Bitcoin has traded in a roughly $65,000 to $70,000 range through the conflict, rising on peace headlines and falling on escalation. The firm also said price action has tended to drift lower into weekends as positions are cut back, then stabilize at the start of each week. At the time cited in the article, Bitcoin was at $66,352, down 1.61% over the prior 24 hours.
The bigger transmission channel is the Strait of Hormuz, not social media itself. About 20% of global oil supply moves through the passage. With the strait effectively closed since February 28, Brent crude surged above $114, feeding inflation concerns and pushing the Federal Reserve farther from rate cuts. That pressure has weighed on risk assets, crypto included. As diplomatic optimism returned, Brent pulled back to $106.93.
The same pattern has repeated for five weeks
This was not an isolated reaction. In the week before Ghalibaf’s post, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US and Iran were in “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS.” Equities rose and oil fell after that message, but by the end of the week the S&P was lower and oil was higher.
Ghalibaf had already argued on March 28 that repeated peace signals were making markets “numb,” while “real prices” would eventually appear. Based on the timeline in the report, each major Trump peace signal over the past five weeks has produced the same setup: Bitcoin and equities jump first, then give back the move as traders reassess the underlying oil and war risk picture.
April 6 is the next point traders are watching
Trump has extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline to April 6. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that he told aides he is willing to end the military campaign in Iran even if the strait stays largely closed. That shifted how the market reads the significance of the date.
After the report, S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%, WTI crude erased earlier gains, and Bitcoin held near $67,545. For crypto, a ceasefire without a reopening of Hormuz sends mixed signals. The immediate war headline risk would ease, which could loosen Bitcoin’s range-bound trading. Oil staying elevated would keep inflation expectations sticky, though, leaving the rate-cut path unresolved. Analysts at Greeks.live said the market has entered a “wait-and-see mode,” with Trump’s next statement on Iran still acting as the main volatility trigger for crypto.