Lavish argues the halving cycle no longer explains Bitcoin well
James Lavish, a former hedge fund manager, said the traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer the main framework for understanding the asset’s price action. Speaking on Scott Melker’s YouTube show, he argued that Bitcoin now reacts more directly to global liquidity conditions and central bank policy than to the mechanical supply narrative tied to halvings.
In his view, Bitcoin has moved into a longer liquidity-driven phase lasting roughly six to seven years. That suggests investors should pay closer attention to macro variables such as monetary easing, interest-rate direction, and broader capital flows rather than relying only on the historical halving timetable.
Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $180,000 by 2026
Based on that liquidity thesis, Lavish said Bitcoin could climb to around $150,000 by 2026, with a more bullish scenario taking it as high as $180,000. His projection is tied to the idea that rising liquidity would continue to support risk assets, with Bitcoin positioned as a key beneficiary.
Even so, the view remains a market outlook rather than a certainty. The source material also includes a disclaimer stating that the content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Macro backdrop shaped by a K-shaped recovery
Lavish also described the broader economy as a K-shaped recovery, where wealthier households benefit more from asset appreciation while much of the broader population continues to struggle with inflation. That divergence, he suggested, is an important part of the current macro backdrop.
He added that the Federal Reserve may eventually return to quantitative easing in an effort to prevent deeper market weakness. If that happens, additional liquidity could once again become a major tailwind for Bitcoin, reinforcing his view that macro conditions now matter more than the old four-year cycle narrative.