In February, Citrini released 'The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis', triggering a selloff in US software stocks and exacerbating unemployment fears in Silicon Valley. In April, its analyst #3 conducted on-the-ground research at the Strait of Hormuz, revealing frontline observations. Recently, semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately predicted the importance of copper foil in AI, spurring a new investment wave. Behind the firm stands James van Geelen, a UCLA biology and psychology graduate, former paramedic, and medical startup founder who later entered the investment world, now dubbed the 'Investment God'.
From Paramedic to Research Founder
Geelen, 33, holds dual degrees from UCLA, worked as an EMT in downtown Los Angeles, and co-founded one of Connecticut's first medical cannabis dispensaries. He first built a healthcare company and sold it to a private equity firm, then founded Citrini. In 2018, he started investing under Citrinitas Capital, catching early opportunities in NVIDIA and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. In December 2025, PitchBook reported Citrini raised ~$5.05 million in seed funding, with about 10 employees.
'2028 Global Intelligence Crisis' Shook US Stocks
Co-authored with traditional finance analyst Alap Shah, the report, though labeled a 'thought experiment', sparked panic over 'white-collar mass unemployment, falling consumer spending, and ghost GDP'. Software stocks lost nearly 5%, IBM suffered its biggest single-day drop in 2025, American Express and Blackstone fell over 8%, DoorDash and Uber dropped 3%, and the Dow fell over 800 points, erasing hundreds of billions in market cap. Media like Bloomberg and WSJ covered it. Shah stated a 'bearish on longs' stance: shorting AI-disrupted companies while holding semiconductor stocks.
Field Research at Strait of Hormuz
On April 6, Citrini's 'Analyst #3' visited the Strait of Hormuz, revealing Iran's 'toll station' model and counterintuitive findings: shipping volume will rise regardless of tensions; Iran doesn't want to close the strait; passage is well-ordered; the conflict is a multi-party game, not a simple confrontation.
Investment Philosophy: Second-Order Thinking and Long-Termism
The firm's name 'citrinitas' is inspired by Soros's 'The Alchemy of Finance', representing the stage where lead transforms into gold. Geelen advocates second-order thinking, focusing on long-term 'super trends' like AI, robotics, energy demand, and geopolitics. He provides actionable 'investment baskets' and tactical macro ideas, emphasizing structural changes. He often uses 'scenario assumptions' to explain second/third-order effects. In March 2023, during SVB's collapse, he bought overnight financing rate call options, netting nearly 50x returns; in December 2023, before the US military action in Venezuela, he shared views on Venezuelan sovereign bonds.
Team Expansion and Impact
This year, Citrini added macro analyst Nick Reece, South Korean semiconductor analyst Jukan, and AI chip analyst zephyr_z9, filling gaps in industry details. The firm remains founder-driven with anonymous elite collaboration. Its Substack consistently ranks #1, and its endorsement of the Hyperliquid ecosystem and Trade.xyz's pre-market pricing boosted the 'US stock RWA asset craze'.
