As global prediction markets boom, a distinctive model is emerging in Japan: using points instead of tokens to circumvent the country's stringent gambling prohibition. According to Bloomberg, startups like Miraima, founded by Gen Z entrepreneurs, are allowing users to predict outcomes of real-world events—such as sports games and elections—and win points that can be exchanged for gift cards or cash equivalents, thereby bypassing the legal ban on monetary gambling.
The Rise of Points-Based Prediction Markets: Miraima and Poyp
Miraima launched in November 2025 and has experienced explosive growth. Capitalizing on the buzz from the 2026 World Cup and other major sporting events, its monthly active users reached nearly 1 million by June 2026. The platform's mechanics allow users to wager using points (rather than real currency) and redeem winning points for a range of gift cards, effectively endowing them with cash-like value. This legal gray-area strategy has proven highly effective. Competitor Poyp released a similar app earlier in 2026, and veteran mobile game developer Gumi Inc. launched its own points-based prediction game in June 2026, further expanding the field.
Global Incumbents in Japan: Polymarket and Kalshi's Stance
In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi—the world’s leading prediction market platforms—currently block or discourage users in Japan from betting on their platforms and have not conducted any official marketing campaigns in the country. However, according to sources cited by Bloomberg, Polymarket views Japan and the broader Asian market as a long-term growth opportunity and has recently assigned a local representative to lead lobbying efforts aimed at gaining government approval. Polymarket declined to comment on its Japan activities but acknowledged “growing interest in its service from Japan and the entire Asian market.” Kalshi also declined to comment. This highlights a clear strategic divide: local players have already captured early market share, while the incumbents await regulatory clarity.
Regulatory Outlook and Industry Impact
Japan’s legal definition of gambling is extremely strict, but the gift-card redemption model has not yet been formally declared illegal, providing an opening for entrepreneurs. If Polymarket’s lobbying efforts succeed, Japan may relax restrictions on prediction markets, creating a direct competitive dynamic between points-based platforms and crypto- powered ones. Meanwhile, domestic platforms like Miraima enjoy a first-mover advantage thanks to low barriers to entry and mobile-first UX. The ongoing game between regulation and innovation will be closely watched by everyone tracking Asian crypto compliance.