Tight Legislative Window and Declining Probability
According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies released a report highlighting that the U.S. CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate. Although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, there are only about 20 legislative days remaining before the August congressional recess. The Senate must still complete bill consolidation, procedural votes, reconciliation with the House version, and submission to the President for signature—making the timeline extremely tight.
Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill being enacted by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%, reflecting growing market skepticism about the legislative outlook.
Market Impact Under Different Scenarios
Jefferies notes that if the CLARITY Act passes, it would establish a clear federal regulatory framework for digital assets. This would encourage banks, asset managers, and exchanges to accelerate initiatives in tokenized assets, custody, staking, and lending. It could also pave the way for more crypto ETFs and IPOs of crypto infrastructure companies, reinforcing U.S. leadership in digital assets.
Conversely, a delay would prolong regulatory uncertainty, potentially causing traditional financial institutions to slow down blockchain-related projects and dampening market sentiment.
Affected Crypto Stocks and Assets
The report expects the legislative process to continue influencing the market performance of crypto-related stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH), as well as certain crypto assets. Investors should monitor legislative developments for short-term volatility.
Circle's Real Long-Term Challenge
Jefferies specifically points out that, from a long-term perspective, the greater challenge for stablecoin issuer Circle is not regulatory changes but competition from banks, fintech firms, and payment companies. As more traditional giants enter the digital asset space, Circle must maintain its edge in technology, compliance, and market share.