Beijing-based historian and educator Jiang Xueqin said in a recent interview with Tucker Carlson that a conflict involving Iran could evolve into a prolonged war of attrition, similar in structure to the war in Ukraine, with neither side willing to back down and no clear path to de-escalation. In his view, such a scenario would not remain confined to the Middle East but would spill into global energy markets, supply chains, and security arrangements.
Energy and logistics risks are central
Jiang argued that early signs of disruption are already visible, pointing to fuel shortages, flight cancellations, and early warnings of food supply restrictions in parts of Southeast Asia. He also cited rising attacks on energy infrastructure, warning that damage to key facilities could tighten global supply, lift costs, and trigger cascading effects across economies that depend on affordable fuel.
He further suggested that the conflict could widen over time. Because regional rivalries and defense relationships are deeply interconnected, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could become more heavily drawn in, making diplomacy more difficult and broadening the scope of the crisis. Jiang said the implications for the global economy could be “quite severe”, especially if major powers become trapped in a cycle of escalation without a clear exit.
Three structural shifts he expects
Beyond the immediate shock, Jiang outlined three longer-term changes that could accelerate if the conflict persists: deindustrialization, large-scale remilitarization, and a stronger push toward economic self-sufficiency. He argued that persistently high energy costs and supply constraints could force governments to rethink their dependence on global trade networks and move toward more localized production.
He also said countries may raise military spending and seek greater strategic independence if confidence in existing security guarantees weakens. In parallel, he described a possible return to “mercantilist” thinking, in which governments build domestic supply chains to reduce exposure to external disruption. Over time, that could reshape trade flows and alter economic alignments.
Asia may face uneven resilience tests
Jiang noted that many Asian economies, including India, Japan, and China, rely heavily on Gulf energy imports and could therefore feel the pressure quickly. As he put it, the real question is not who will be affected, but who will prove more resilient and adaptable. He suggested that China may be able to absorb short-term shocks, but a prolonged period of unstable trade and energy flows could still expose vulnerabilities tied to exports and imported energy.
The report also notes that many of Jiang’s projections remain speculative and reflect his personal analytical framework. Even so, his comments underscore broader concerns among analysts that a localized conflict can generate much wider economic and geopolitical consequences. With global markets still highly sensitive to geopolitical risk, particularly in major energy-producing regions, policymakers and investors are watching closely for signs of escalation or stabilization.