Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP, said on X that market pricing remained sharply split with five hours left before the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Based on implied probabilities derived from 30-day federal funds futures, 65% of the market was pricing in no rate hike, while 35% was pricing in a hike. He described that gap as an outlier compared with recent years.
Jiang also said that since 2015, traders’ average error in predicting the final rate decision one day before an FOMC meeting was only 2.4 basis points, and that only two meetings had seen a wider disagreement ahead of the decision than the current one. In his view, the most likely setup is that the Fed leaves rates unchanged while Chair Warsh delivers relatively hawkish remarks to keep markets balanced.
He said that under such a scenario, crypto prices could first rise enough to liquidate short positions and then reverse lower to hit longs. Jiang added that Bitcoin had declined after each of the past eight FOMC meetings, listing drops of 5.87% in July 2025, 7.34% in September 2025, 29.08% in October 2025, 10.63% in December 2025, 33.55% in January 2026, 13.01% in March 2026, 3.34% in April 2026, and 12.97% in June 2026.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP, said in a post on X that with five hours remaining before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, the market was still deeply divided on whether the Fed would raise rates.
Using implied probabilities derived from 30-day federal funds futures, Jiang said 65% of the market was pricing in no hike, while 35% was pricing in a hike. He called that level of disagreement an outlier compared with recent years.
He added that since 2015, traders’ average error in forecasting the final rate decision one day before an FOMC announcement was 2.4 basis points. According to his post, only two meetings had seen a larger degree of market disagreement ahead of the decision than the current one.
Jiang’s base-case scenario is that the Fed leaves rates unchanged, while Chair Warsh uses relatively hawkish language to keep the market balanced. Under that setup, he said crypto prices could first move higher and wipe out short positions, then turn lower and liquidate longs.
He also said Bitcoin had fallen after each of the past eight FOMC meetings. The declines he listed were 5.87% in July 2025, 7.34% in September 2025, 29.08% in October 2025, 10.63% in December 2025, 33.55% in January 2026, 13.01% in March 2026, 3.34% in April 2026, and 12.97% in June 2026.
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