Jiang Zhuoer, founder of mining pool B.TOP, said on July 24 that the CLARITY Act has a low chance of passing, estimating the odds at about 10% to 20%, with major differences still unresolved even on the ethics provisions alone.
According to Jiang, the version Donald Trump is willing to accept would only restrict the president and the president’s spouse from participating in crypto asset issuance. Democrats, by contrast, want those limits extended to other family members and family entities.
Key disputes center on ethics rules and enforcement power
Jiang said the two sides have also failed to agree on enforcement authority. Trump supports giving the U.S. Department of Justice responsibility for prosecuting violations. Democrats argue that because the attorney general is appointed by the president, state attorneys general should also be given the power to prosecute.
He added that if the Democratic restrictions were accepted in full, Trump would have little incentive to sign the bill. Beyond the ethics section, Jiang said other parts of the legislation also contain multiple unresolved disagreements.
Congressional calendar leaves little room before recess
Jiang said the U.S. Congress will go into recess on Aug. 7, leaving only about 10 working days. With that much procedural time left, he said, it will be difficult to resolve major differences before lawmakers break.
He also said the Sept. 14 to Oct. 5 session falls close to the midterm elections, while Congress will also need to deal with budget and appropriations matters and could even face the risk of a government shutdown. In his view, Democrats also lack the political incentive to push the bill through before the election.