Wall Street bank JPMorgan has struck a constructive tone on crypto markets, forecasting a rebound in 2026 driven by institutional inflows and regulatory clarity. The report comes after a steep correction that dragged bitcoin below the bank's estimated production cost of roughly $77,000.
“We are positive in crypto markets for 2026 as we expect a further rise in digital asset flows, more led by institutional investors,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote Monday. Bitcoin was trading around $66,300 at publication time, below the breakeven level for miners.
Production Cost as a Soft Floor
JPMorgan estimates that bitcoin's production cost has fallen recently to about $77,000. Historically, trading below this level pressures miners and forces higher-cost operators offline, ultimately lowering the aggregate cost. The bank views this as a self-correcting dynamic that may support prices in the medium term.
Despite the drawdown, volatility remains elevated and institutional engagement has held up better than retail activity. If capital rotation into digital assets resumes, a rebound could follow. The report notes that retail traders and digital asset treasuries are expected to play a smaller role in the next recovery compared to institutions.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Shifting Appeal
Gold has significantly outperformed bitcoin since October, while gold's volatility has climbed sharply. This combination makes bitcoin look increasingly attractive versus gold on a long-term basis, according to JPMorgan. Further regulatory progress in the U.S., including potential passage of the Clarity Act, could underpin the next leg higher.
The bank expects a gradual recovery driven by structural factors such as clearer regulations and deeper involvement from traditional finance infrastructure, rather than speculative retail frenzy.