JPMorgan said before the latest pullback in precious metals that Bitcoin futures had moved into oversold territory, while silver futures were sitting in a highly overbought zone. The call was followed by a steep reversal in both metals, with silver falling more than 30% in a single day and gold dropping by over 10%.
ETF flows showed money moving from Bitcoin into precious metals
According to the bank, retail investors spent much of 2025 holding both Bitcoin and gold ETFs as trades tied to inflation and currency debasement. That pattern started to change in August 2025, when inflows into Bitcoin ETFs stalled and then turned into outflows in the fourth quarter. Gold ETFs, by contrast, drew nearly $60 billion over the full year, while silver ETF inflows were concentrated in the fourth quarter, lining up with the retreat from Bitcoin ETFs.
JPMorgan said the shift suggested retail investors were trimming crypto exposure and moving part of that capital into gold and silver. The same rotation could also be seen in derivatives positioning, where precious metals gained momentum while Bitcoin lagged.
CME positioning pointed to stronger institutional demand for gold and silver
On the institutional side, the bank used changes in CME futures open interest as a key gauge. It found that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to early 2026, long positions in silver futures built up quickly, driven mainly by hedge funds. Gold futures also saw a steady increase in bullish positioning over the past year.
Bitcoin futures did not record a similar rise in exposure. That gap suggested institutions were still more cautious on crypto risk, while showing a greater willingness to add positions in precious metals.
Momentum signals diverged across gold, silver and Bitcoin
JPMorgan said momentum and trend indicators had split sharply across the three assets. Gold futures had already entered overbought territory, silver futures were even more stretched, and Bitcoin futures were flashing oversold conditions. After the report, gold and silver briefly hit fresh highs before reversing hard, putting the short-term correction risk into focus.
The bank also compared market liquidity across the three assets. Using the Hui-Heubel ratio, it said gold remained the most liquid market, while silver was thinner and more vulnerable to larger swings when market breadth narrowed. Bitcoin posted the highest reading of the three, indicating greater sensitivity to fund flows and trading-volume changes, with price moves more easily amplified.
Bank keeps long-term bullish view on gold
Even after the correction, JPMorgan kept its longer-term gold thesis unchanged. The bank said allocations to gold were still rising among private investors and central banks. If households continue replacing long-duration bonds with gold as a hedge against equity risk, private portfolios could lift gold exposure from a little above 3% to around 4.6% over the next several years.
Under that scenario, JPMorgan said gold could reach a theoretical range of $8,000 to $8,500 per ounce. For Bitcoin, the bank had previously outlined a bullish case of $170,000 over a 6- to 12-month period last year, but it has not updated that target, and the market is still watching for signs that institutional capital may return to crypto assets.