Bitcoin has held up better than gold and silver as exchange-traded fund outflows, position unwinds and weaker liquidity weigh on precious metals, according to a Wednesday report from JPMorgan. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said liquidity conditions in gold have deteriorated enough that its market breadth has now fallen below bitcoin’s.
The bank said bitcoin has shown relative resilience in recent weeks after the outbreak of war in Iran, even though it had already corrected sharply from its October all-time highs. In the initial shock, bitcoin fell with broader risk assets, briefly dropping into the low-$60,000 range and triggering heavy liquidations as investors cut risk exposure during the geopolitical flare-up. The move did not last. Prices later stabilized in the upper-$60,000 to low-$70,000 range, even as tensions continued and oil climbed above $100 a barrel.
Fund flows split between crypto and precious metals
JPMorgan said that pattern suggests bitcoin is not behaving like a pure safe-haven asset during the first wave of a macro shock. Instead, it is trading more like a high-beta macro asset: it sells off first, then finds support once panic fades, flows return and longer-term holders step back in.
Gold and silver have moved in the opposite direction. The report said gold is down about 15% month to date, reversing a crowded rally that had pushed prices close to a record $5,500 in January. Silver, after peaking near $120, has also moved lower. JPMorgan linked the decline to rising interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar and broad profit-taking by both retail and institutional investors.
Flow data points to the same divergence. The bank said gold ETFs recorded nearly $11 billion in outflows in the first three weeks of March, while inflows built up in silver ETFs since last summer have been unwound. Bitcoin funds, by contrast, continued to register net inflows over the same stretch.
CME positioning and momentum tell a similar story
Positioning data also shows a clear split. Using Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures open interest as a proxy for institutional activity, JPMorgan found that exposure to gold and silver built sharply through late 2025 and early 2026, then fell steeply from January as investors reduced positions. Bitcoin futures positioning has stayed comparatively stable in recent weeks.
Momentum indicators have also diverged. The bank said trend-following investors such as Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs, have cut gold and silver exposure aggressively, with signals moving from overbought to below neutral. That shift likely intensified the recent declines. Bitcoin momentum, on the other hand, is recovering from oversold territory toward neutral, indicating that selling pressure may be easing.