JPMorgan expects gold to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and rise to $4,500 in the fourth quarter, according to forecasts cited by Reuters. The bank still sees the broader direction for gold as higher, though it now expects the advance to be slower than previously anticipated. In the near term, its view is much more restrained, with prices likely to remain inside a defined trading range.
Short-term upside capped by weaker demand and real rates
The bank said purchasing power has weakened in major markets that have traditionally shown strong appetite for gold. It also highlighted gold’s growing sensitivity to real interest rates. That matters because gold does not generate yield, so higher real rates can reduce its appeal versus other assets and weigh on investor demand.
JPMorgan’s assessment is that gold has temporarily lost some ground against competing investment instruments. For now, that keeps the metal in a sideways pattern rather than a sustained breakout. The bank said a more visible recovery is likely in the second half of 2026, while the immediate setup points to range-bound trading.
Three drivers still support the long-term bullish case
Even with a more cautious short-term stance, JPMorgan did not change its medium- to long-term outlook. The bank identified three main supports that could keep gold on an upward path through 2027. The first is continued reserve accumulation by central banks. The second is an expected pickup in physical gold demand in the coming months. The third is institutional demand for portfolio protection through gold holdings.
In JPMorgan’s framework, central bank reserve building, stronger physical demand, and institutional hedging activity remain the core pillars behind its long-term forecast. As one of the largest banks in the United States, its calls on commodities, foreign exchange, and macro markets are closely watched.
Bitcoin comparison returns as capital rotation comes into view
The report also pointed to the ongoing comparison between gold and Bitcoin through 2025 and early 2026, with both assets discussed as alternative hedges against macro risk. A softer near-term outlook for gold could lead some institutional funds to direct more capital toward digital assets such as BTC for a period.
Still, JPMorgan said gold is expected to keep its long-term role as a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve asset. A weak stretch in the near term does not, in its view, change gold’s standing as a proven store of value.