Ahead of Tesla's Q1 earnings release, JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman fired off a stark warning: maintain an Underweight rating and a year-end 2026 price target of $145. Against Monday's close of $352.82, the target signals a potential 60% decline. Tesla shares have already shed 22% year-to-date, but Brinkman sees that as just the start.
Q1 Deliveries Miss, EPS Cut by 30%
First-quarter deliveries came in at 358,000 units, below the Bloomberg consensus of 372,000 and JPMorgan's own estimate of 385,000. Brinkman slashed his Q1 EPS forecast from $0.43 to $0.30, well under the street consensus of $0.38. Full-year 2026 EPS was also trimmed, from $2.00 to $1.80. More alarming: Megapack installations slid 15% year-over-year, the first sign of stalling in that segment. Inventory ballooned to a record 164,000 unsold vehicles—a combination that flashes a red alert for any automaker.
European Headwinds from Political Backlash
The European picture is even bleaker. In early 2026, Tesla's new-vehicle registrations in major European markets plunged as much as 50% year-over-year. JPMorgan attributed part of the slump to consumer backlash against Elon Musk's political activism, including his high-profile involvement in U.S. politics and the DOGE government efficiency initiative.
Valuation Contradiction: Stock 50% Above Delivery Peak
Brinkman used the phrase “incredibly” in his note: despite persistently weak delivery growth, Tesla's stock still trades more than 50% above the level seen during the peak delivery month of June 2022. Consensus expectations for all performance metrics through at least 2030 have been significantly revised down, yet the valuation has not adjusted. Brinkman warned that investors must now seriously consider "execution risk" and "time value of money."
Tesla will report its formal Q1 results on April 22. That date will test both the numbers and market sentiment.