Two developments last Friday stood out in an Odaily market analysis, which argued they may have sent early signals that U.S. equities are finding a floor and attempting to recover. One came from the July nonfarm payrolls report. The other came from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and its second-quarter earnings release.
Payrolls came in far below expectations
The article first focused on macro data. U.S. nonfarm payrolls for July fell by 23,000, marking the first decline since February. The market had been expecting an increase of 80,000.
Odaily described the swing from an expected gain of 80,000 to an actual drop of 23,000 as a sharp reversal. In the article’s reading, the market’s first reaction was not panic but a renewed rush into rate-cut expectations. A weaker labor market, it said, lowers the bar for Federal Reserve easing, pushing expectations for cuts higher and bringing liquidity-sensitive trades back into focus.
Against that backdrop, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher.
Berkshire’s cash pile fell by $31.5 billion in one quarter
The second signal identified by the article came from Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 report.
According to the piece, the most important figure in the report was not profit but the shift in cash holdings. In the first quarter, Berkshire’s cash reserve had reached a record $397 billion. At the time, the market had been uneasy about Buffett sitting on such a large amount of cash, reading it as a possible sign that valuations looked too rich or that he was staying defensive against potential shocks.
By the second quarter, that cash balance had declined to $365.5 billion. That means Berkshire put $31.5 billion to work over the quarter.
Odaily’s interpretation was that the move mattered because it showed a change in capital positioning. If one of the market’s most cautious and patient pools of capital is shifting from cash to deployment, the article argued, that in itself can be read as support for current valuations.
The piece then added a more specific detail on where the money went, saying that roughly $20 billion of the $31.5 billion was used to increase Berkshire’s position in Google.
From memory chips to Alphabet, a different AI trade
The article tied that reported Google buying to a broader AI investing framework.
It said memory-related stocks had already been discussed in earlier analysis as names where expectations may have peaked before fundamentals, with valuations already pricing in a high point. Under that view, chasing those stocks now could mean buying near the top.
Google, by contrast, was presented as a different type of AI beneficiary. In the article’s wording, memory-chip companies are making cyclical money from supply-demand imbalances, and gross margins have already climbed to 80%, leaving less room for the upward slope to keep steepening. Google, on the other hand, was described as making ecosystem-driven AI money, with cloud, search, and large models all positioned as lines of benefit, while its valuation has not priced in as much future optimism.
That led the article to a broader conclusion: Buffett’s reported $20 billion move into Google points to an AI market phase where certainty may matter more than pure upside sensitivity.
The article also warned that the path may stay volatile
Odaily did not present those signals as a straight-line setup. It noted that rate-cut expectations can swing with each new economic release. In the article’s framing, weaker data can lift expectations for cuts and support equities, while stronger data can cool those expectations and pressure stocks. Each upcoming Consumer Price Index release and each payroll report could still trigger sharp moves.
The piece also cautioned against treating Berkshire’s positioning as a simple copy-trade. Berkshire’s entry cost and holding period, it said, are on a completely different scale from those of retail investors.
Original article mentioned options and margin tools
For a market environment with visible directional clues but a bumpy path, the original piece also mentioned BIT brokerage’s options-buying function and margin financing tools.
It said buying options may fit data-driven, high-volatility windows, whether for expressing a view that the next set of data will push rate-cut expectations higher or for hedging downside in an existing portfolio. The article added that the maximum loss is capped at the premium paid when the order is placed.
As for margin financing, the piece said the tool may be better suited to a later stage, after signals have been confirmed and the trend becomes clearer, such as when rate cuts actually arrive.
The original article ended with a disclaimer stating that the discussion was based on public information and market data, represented only the author’s personal judgment, and did not constitute investment advice, securities recommendations, an offer to buy or sell, or any promise of returns for securities, financial products, or digital assets.