July payrolls are in focus ahead of the Fed decision
According to Jin10, BNP Paribas chief economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting could become significantly more uncertain if July nonfarm payrolls come in near or above 130,000. Her comments underscore how closely markets are watching labor data as a near-term signal for monetary policy direction. At this stage, payroll strength remains a core variable in how traders interpret the Fed’s next move.
Rate futures show lower odds of a July hike
Short-term interest rate futures are currently pricing in about a 20% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its July 29 policy decision. That figure is down from 33% before the nonfarm payrolls report, indicating that market expectations for additional tightening have eased. For crypto markets, shifts in Fed pricing are closely tied to changes in liquidity expectations, the US dollar outlook, and broader risk-asset volatility.
ECB September outlook still leaves room for flexibility
Mateos y Lago also said the European Central Bank is still expected to raise rates again in September, but she did not rule out the possibility that no further hikes may occur. That suggests the ECB’s policy path remains conditional on incoming inflation and economic data rather than fully predetermined. In the current environment, investors across crypto and traditional markets continue to track both Fed and ECB policy signals as important drivers of macro sentiment.