Bitcoin came under pressure again after revisiting its 200-day moving average near $82,000 in early May, reviving comparisons with 2014, 2018, and 2022, when similar rebounds into that level were followed by fresh cycle lows. K33 does not see the current market through that same lens. The firm says Bitcoin’s February low near $60,000 still stands as its base case for the deepest drawdown of the present cycle.
The retest happened, but the path has been much slower
K33’s main argument is based on how long this move has taken. From Bitcoin’s break below the 200-day moving average in November 2025 to its retest in May 2026, the market took 189 days. In earlier cycles, comparable rebounds took only 96 days, 132 days, and 85 days. According to Head of Research Vetle Lunde, past recoveries were faster and rebuilt risk appetite and leverage quickly, setting up the unwind that drove the next leg lower. This time, that sharp rebuild has not appeared.
ETF outflows and filings point to a defensive market
K33 also argues that the market still lacks the heavy leverage build-up often seen before a deeper sell-off. The firm pointed to 13F filings showing that institutional investors reduced Bitcoin exposure by 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors added 19,395 BTC.
Fund flow data shows the same tone. As Bitcoin slipped below $77,000, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged more than $1 billion in cumulative weekly outflows. At the same time, liquidations across the crypto market topped $661 million. One day later, those ETF products posted another $648.6 million in net outflows, the largest single-day withdrawal since Jan. 29. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $448.3 million of that total.
Withdrawals tend to rise near ETF holders’ average cost
K33 said large ETF withdrawals have become more common when Bitcoin trades close to the average cost basis of ETF buyers. Lunde’s view is that, after a deep drawdown, investors often use that price area to avoid losses or cut them down once the market returns near their entry level.
The firm did not change its broader call despite the latest weakness. Lunde said K33 still expects a less aggressive bull market in 2025, which in its framework would set up a more moderate bear market in 2026. Under that view, the $60,000 low from February remains the firm’s central case for the cycle’s maximum drawdown.
As of May 20, Bitcoin was trading near $77,400, according to crypto.news, down about 4.2% over seven days. The asset also remained well below its October 2025 record high of about $126,080, showing that the recovery has yet to fully restore market confidence.