Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim a key moving average near $83,000 has revived concern that another sharp leg down could follow. K33 Research said in a Tuesday report that the current cycle is not behaving like the post-rejection declines seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, when bitcoin bounced back aggressively before rolling over again.
In those earlier periods, price recoveries toward the 200-day moving average were driven by leverage rebuilding quickly and bullish positioning returning too fast. K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said that pattern has not appeared this time. Instead, derivatives data points to what the firm described as uniquely pessimistic sentiment, a setup that may limit the kind of collapse seen in previous bear phases.
Negative funding and weak basis show traders remain defensive
K33 said bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate has stayed negative for 81 straight days, close to the longest such stretch on record. That suggests traders have consistently leaned bearish even as bitcoin recovered from its February lows near $60,000. The report also noted that annualized basis on CME bitcoin futures recently fell below 2.5%, a level the firm associates with periods of extreme caution.
Lunde still flagged clear risks. Open interest across bitcoin derivatives remains elevated, leaving the market exposed to another volatility event if price weakens again. At the same time, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in outflows over five days as bitcoin softened near $83,000, which K33 said is close to the average cost basis for many ETF holders.
Selling pressure may build near breakeven levels
According to the report, investors have often sold more aggressively when prices recover toward breakeven after a long drawdown, and K33 said that pattern now appears to be emerging again. That does not match the classic leverage-fueled rebound structure of prior cycles, but it does point to overhead selling pressure as bitcoin approaches levels where many holders can exit near cost.
Even so, K33 said its proprietary indicators still look more similar to the stronger period in March and April 2025 than to the bear market rallies of earlier cycles. During that stretch, bitcoin bottomed while Trump’s tariff rollout was unfolding and later climbed to fresh highs. The firm continues to view the February slide toward $60,000 as the likely deepest drawdown of this cycle.
Lunde wrote that the less aggressive bull market of 2025 set the stage for a more moderate bear market in 2026. K33’s base-case view remains that the $60,000 level reached in February marked the maximum drawdown for the current bear market.