Latest data from Kalshi show that participants in the market tied to the Federal Reserve’s July decision are pricing a 79% chance that the Fed keeps rates unchanged. In the same market, the probability assigned to a 25-basis-point rate increase stands at 20%, while the probability assigned to a 25-basis-point rate cut is only 2%.
The figures come from Kalshi’s market page for the July Fed meeting. Based on the data provided, holding rates steady is the highest-priced outcome, followed by a 25-basis-point hike. A 25-basis-point cut ranks as the lowest-probability outcome among the listed choices.
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