Kevin Warsh cleared the Senate Banking Committee on April 29 by a 13-11 party-line vote, positioning him to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His confirmation is expected to be finalized by the full Senate in early May, with his term beginning on May 15, 2026, upon Powell‘s departure. Warsh will chair his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, 2026. Despite signaling a preference for rate cuts, traders across futures and prediction markets assign a greater than 93% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at that meeting.
Powell Steps Down, Warsh Takes Over
Jerome Powell presided over his final FOMC meeting as Chair on April 29, where the committee voted to keep the federal funds rate at 350-375 basis points. Powell retains the option to remain on the Board of Governors until 2028, a move not seen since 1948. Market participants on Kalshi have flagged this as a potential influence on June’s rate decision. Warsh, widely seen as President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate, has called for a “regime change,” pointing to artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains as a buffer against inflation and leaning toward rate cuts in his public remarks.
Market Odds: Overwhelming Consensus for a Hold
Despite Warsh‘s dovish leanings, economic data continues to constrain the Fed’s options. The March 2026 CPI reading came in at 3.3%, and the labor market remains robust, reinforcing a data-dependent stance. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 93.3% probability of no change at the June 17 meeting, with only a 6.7% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 0% probability of a hike. One month ago, the probability of a cut stood at 4.0%, now edging up to 6.7%, but the consensus remains firmly in favor of a pause.
On Polymarket, the “Fed Decision in June” contract has generated about $16.48 million in trading volume as of May 3, 2026. The “No change” outcome is priced at 96 cents, implying a 96% probability. A 25-basis-point cut is at 3.6%, and a 25-basis-point hike at 1.1%; larger moves each carry less than 1% probability. Participants cite the 3.3% CPI and stable labor market as the main drivers behind the hold consensus, noting that Warsh is not expected to break from the prevailing posture at his debut meeting.
Kalshi Data Confirms the Consensus
On Kalshi, the “Fed maintains rate” contract is priced at 95 cents, reflecting a 95% probability of no change. The odds of a 25-basis-point cut are 6%, and a cut larger than 25 basis points carries a 2% probability. A separate contract tracking whether the fed funds rate remains above 3.25% commands a 98% confidence level. Total betting volume on the Kalshi market has reached $3,461,005. The price history shows sharp swings between January and March, when “maintain” and “cut” odds crossed frequently. Since April, the hold expectation has trended steadily higher. The Kalshi market closes at 1:59 PM EDT on June 17, just before the FOMC announcement. By then, Warsh will have chaired his first policy meeting and delivered his first rate decision as Chair. Whether he breaks from the current 350-375 basis point range or holds Powell’s line, traders across both platforms have already placed their bets.
In summary, while Warsh’s personal preferences lean toward loosening, the reality of 3.3% inflation and a firm labor market makes an immediate pivot unlikely. The market overwhelmingly expects a hold in June, and Warsh‘s ability to deliver a “regime change” will depend on incoming data in the months ahead.