China’s commercial space names surged after the July 10 debut of Long March 10B, then sold off hard by July 13, in a swing the original article links to fragmented ownership and an outsized quant trading influence rather than to a simple change in the news backdrop.
Launch success was followed by a sharp reversal in space-related stocks
According to the article, the commercial space segment jumped after Long March 10B completed its first flight and what it described as the world’s first rocket recovery using a net-based system. But by July 13, the sector had turned lower. It said Dianke Lantian fell more than 10%, while Aerospace Power, Xinyi Communication and Tongyu Communication also dropped, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both down more than 2%.
The report said the rocket lifted off from the Hainan commercial launch site at 12:15 p.m. on July 10. It listed the vehicle at 63 meters in length and 890 tons of liftoff thrust. About six minutes after stage separation, the first stage returned vertically and was caught by the flexible barrier net on the “Linghangzhe” recovery platform. The article called it China’s first controlled recovery of a heavy-lift rocket first stage and the first net-based recovery of its kind globally, adding that China became the second country after the United States to master the technology.
That announcement had triggered a broad rally, with more than 30 stocks hitting their daily limit and heavyweight names China Spacesat and China Satcom also locking limit-up, the article said.
The article points to ownership structure and quant activity
The piece cited Securities Times as saying mutual funds and social security funds have long been underweight or absent in commercial space. It said firms such as Sirui New Materials and Information Development, both up more than 100%, still had no public funds among their top 10 floating shareholders, while Aerospace Power and Aerospace Development had some institutional participation but only on a limited scale.
In that setup, the article argues, the sector lacks a long-term base of institutional holdings. It also says quant money accounts for 20% to 30% of A-share turnover, a share that can carry more weight in sectors without long-only anchors.
The article’s framing is that quant strategies seek to profit from volatility. In sectors with weak long-term sponsorship, they can amplify the move on the way up and on the way down.
Aerospace Development was used as an example
The article singled out Aerospace Development, saying its July 10 trading list showed Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, institutions and speculative brokerage seats among the top buyers, while East Money’s Lhasa Tuanjie Road No.1 branch appeared on the sell side. It said institutions were net buyers of RMB 85.71 million on the limit-up day, while retail-linked Lhasa flows were net sellers of RMB 18.06 million.
It also said the company had appeared on the notable-trading list eight times in the past six months, with an average 5-day decline of 10.66% after those appearances.
At the same time, the article contrasted secondary-market turbulence with continued primary-market funding. Citing Taibo Think Tank, it said China’s commercial space sector disclosed 89 financing events in the first half of 2026 totaling RMB 15.13 billion, with launch services accounting for 44% of the total.
Primary and secondary markets are using different clocks
The article used SpaceX as a reference point, saying the company reached a market value of $1.77 trillion after listing this year despite a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025. In the article’s telling, primary-market capital is pricing long-term space economy potential, including a RMB 2.83 trillion market estimate from CCID Think Tank, demand for the launch of more than 10,000 satellites within five years, and the first-come-first-served nature of orbital resources.
The article says that logic does not yet match how China’s secondary market prices the sector, where short-term trading can overshadow industrial progress.
Three waves over two years: concept, policy, then technical validation
The piece divides the sector’s run over the past two years into three phases.
- The first came in early 2025, after China submitted frequency and orbital resource applications for 203,000 satellites across 14 constellations to the International Telecommunication Union. The article said that sparked speculation around a “China version of SpaceX,” with China Spacesat’s price-to-earnings ratio rising to 2,400 times, while China Satcom later warned in a filing that a pass-the-parcel effect was obvious.
- The second came in late 2025, when the National Space Administration set up a commercial space department and the STAR Market’s fifth listing standard gave unprofitable rocket companies a clearer funding path. Blue Arrow Aerospace then moved toward becoming the first A-share commercial space listing, according to the article. That rally faded after recovery tests involving Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A failed.
- The third came in spring 2026, when reusable rocket testing accelerated. The article said Zhuque-3 Yao-2 completed static fire testing, Lijian-2 made a successful debut, and Long March 10B had originally been scheduled for a first flight in April. It also said first-quarter results exposed a sharp profit split across the supply chain, with upstream firms making strong money while downstream companies stayed deeply in the red. Then Tianlong-3 suffered a failed debut, and an April 3 explosion cooled sentiment again.
The article said the sector had fallen 8% over the three sessions before July 10, with Shenjian Co. hitting limit-down and several names dropping more than 10%, before Long March 10B reignited interest by completing what it described as a full closed loop of orbital launch and controlled recovery.
It stops short of declaring a fresh bull run, but says the driver behind each wave has become clearer over time: concept, policy, then technical validation.
Valuation tests are still ahead
The article argues that reusable technology sits at the center of the sector’s economics. It says the first stage accounts for more than 70% of a rocket’s cost, and recovery can save that portion of manufacturing expense. It cited Falcon 9 as having reduced launch-to-orbit cost to RMB 19,000 to RMB 28,000 per kilogram through 34 reuses, versus domestic launch quotes of RMB 50,000 to RMB 100,000 per kilogram. It said Zhuque-3 is targeting below RMB 20,000 per kilogram, and industry estimates put the long-term figure below RMB 1,000 per kilogram if reuse is fully matured.
On the demand side, the article listed 12,992 satellites for the GW constellation and 13,904 plus 1,296 for the Qianfan constellation, bringing the total planned count to more than 50,000 satellites. Against that, it said China has only 18 commercial launch pads in operation and another seven under construction, with an average wait time of one month.
Citing a low-earth-orbit satellite internet industry report from Yuanhe Chenkun, the article said the investment priority runs from full rockets to satellite operators, then complete satellites, then components. It also said the report expects the private rocket market to end up with only two or three leaders.
Second-half milestones will matter
The article listed several events for the second half of the year: a recovery test for Zhuque-3 Yao-2, a first flight for Zhishenxing-1, a return-to-flight attempt for Tianlong-3 after its April setback, and Long March 10B’s planned first reuse attempt before year-end.
It also said Blue Arrow Aerospace’s STAR Market IPO has reached the inquiry stage, with CAS Space following behind, and argued that domestic rocket company valuations are about to face public-market scrutiny for the first time.
The earnings season will add another check. The article said China Spacesat disclosed on July 12 that first-half net profit is expected at RMB 30.5 million to RMB 36.5 million, returning to profit year on year. It also said Zhenlei Technology posted more than RMB 400 million in Q1 revenue with a 31% margin, while BLT’s Q1 revenue rose 40.5% and net profit doubled. Downstream player Piesat, by contrast, saw Q1 revenue plunge 86% and has been placed under *ST treatment.
The article’s conclusion is narrow: Long March 10B’s recovery marks a major technical breakthrough for China’s commercial space industry and opens a path to lower costs, but that does not mean the market will adopt a stable valuation framework right away.