Short-term pain has deepened across major crypto assets, and traders are now focusing on one on-chain metric: 30-day MVRV. Santiment’s latest data shows Bitcoin at -10%, Ethereum at -12%, Chainlink at -9%, XRP at -8%, and Cardano near -18%. Santiment described Bitcoin’s reading as a “reasonable buy” zone, while Cardano’s drop was categorized as a historically stronger buy signal.
The 30-day MVRV tracks the average profit or loss of holders who bought within the past month. When the ratio falls well below zero, recent buyers are sitting underwater on average. That usually reflects heavier fear in the market and can indicate that a large share of short-term sellers has already exited.
Cardano shows the deepest drawdown in the group
Among the five assets highlighted, Cardano posted the sharpest deterioration. Its 30-day MVRV fell to about -18%, showing that buyers who entered over the past month are facing the largest average losses in this set. Santiment said in an X post that conditions similar to “blood in the streets” had appeared across these networks, that buy signals were flashing for several large-cap assets, and that the first price moves were beginning to support that view.
Price reaction starts after MVRV hits depressed levels
Santiment’s charts also showed early rebound signs after these assets moved into buy zones. The move has been limited so far, but the timing lined up with periods when MVRV ratios reached their lows. According to the firm’s reading of the market, short-term participants were selling into weakness near the end of May, while longer-term holders began accumulating. That pattern has appeared in earlier cycles as weaker hands leave positions and supply pressure starts to ease.
Santiment still cautioned that no single indicator can confirm a bullish reversal on its own. Even so, the current MVRV readings for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, XRP, and Chainlink suggest a more attractive risk-reward setup than before, with much of the downside risk potentially already reflected in prices.
Traders are watching for a move back toward zero
In the next few days, on-chain participants are expected to track whether 30-day MVRV starts climbing back toward the zero line. A return toward that level would indicate that the average recent buyer is approaching break-even. If several major assets move back into positive territory at the same time, it could point to a broader turn in market direction.