Mantle (MNT) has fallen more than 22% over the past two weeks, sliding from $1.13 on Jan. 6 to about $0.88 in Asian morning trading. On a wider timeframe, the token is down nearly 69% from its all-time high of $2.86 reached in October last year. The pullback has tracked a broader crypto correction, with fresh liquidation pressure hitting the market as 2026 began.
Macro conditions have added to the weakness. The report points to Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the six-figure level after losing it during a correction in mid-November, while renewed trade tensions between the United States and the European Union have pushed sentiment into a risk-off mode. Delays tied to a key U.S. Senate market structure bill have also weighed on crypto assets. Even Robinhood’s recent MNT listing did little to improve the tone.
Speculative demand fades as futures activity contracts
One of the clearest signs of softer appetite has come from the derivatives market. According to CoinGlass, Mantle futures open interest has dropped to $59 million, down sharply from $490 million recorded in October last year. That kind of decline usually signals weaker speculative participation and a less supportive backdrop for price.
At the same time, on-chain data has started moving in a different direction from spot price action. Nansen data shows MNT exchange reserves fell from a monthly high of $1.93 billion to $1.89 billion. When exchange balances decline, it often means holders are withdrawing tokens to private wallets instead of keeping them ready for sale on trading platforms.
Daily chart shows a double bottom while $0.85 remains the key level
On the daily chart, Mantle is still trading inside a descending parallel channel. In the short term, that keeps the structure bearish. Still, many technical traders view this setup as a possible bullish continuation pattern if price can break above the upper boundary with conviction.
The chart has also formed a double-bottom pattern, with two troughs near the same level. If buying pressure improves and exchange outflows continue, a successful defense of the $0.85 support could open the way for a relief rally toward the psychological $1.00 level. A clean break above that area would strengthen the bullish case and could send MNT toward $1.20, based on the projected height of the channel. If $0.85 fails, the next support sits near $0.67, around the Aug. 2 low.
Momentum gauges still favor bears for now
Despite those early reversal signals, momentum indicators have not turned constructive yet. The report says the MACD lines remained below the zero line at the time of writing, showing that the downtrend still had notable strength. The Aroon reading told a similar story: Aroon Down stood at 85.7%, while Aroon Up was only 0%.
That leaves Mantle at a technical crossroads. Exchange outflows and chart structure are offering the first signs of a possible turn, but the move still needs confirmation. For now, $0.85 support and $1.00 resistance remain the two levels most likely to define the next direction.