Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate increase this month has moved close to an even split, according to CME FedWatch data cited by BlockBeats on Sept. 3. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike is now about 50%, down from 70% a day earlier. The shift came after several Fed officials pushed back against the view that another rate increase was effectively locked in. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if August data shows inflation continuing to improve. A day earlier, New York Fed President John Williams said the case for raising rates was not strong enough at this point. The repricing shows that expectations around the upcoming Fed decision have become notably less one-sided within a day.
Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month have fallen sharply, moving close to an even split, according to BlockBeats on Sept. 3.
Data from CME FedWatch shows the market is currently pricing in about a 50% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September. Just a day earlier, investors had priced that probability as high as 70%.
Before that move, several Fed officials had made remarks aimed at pushing back on the idea that a rate hike was already a foregone conclusion. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said later in the day that he would support leaving rates unchanged if August data shows inflation continuing to improve. One day earlier, New York Fed President John Williams also said the case for a rate increase was not sufficiently strong at the moment.
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