Markets Reprice Fed Path After Weak Payrolls as Hormuz Talks and AI Valuations Stay in Focus

Markets Reprice Fed Path After Weak Payrolls as Hormuz Talks and AI Valuations Stay in Focus

N
News Editor
2026-08-08 04:38:32
Global markets moved on several fronts this week, with softer U.S. labor data, fresh developments around the Strait of Hormuz, and a new round of scrutiny on AI-related valuations shaping sentiment. The U.S. added negative momentum to rate expectations after July nonfarm payrolls showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, far below forecasts for an increase of 80,000. At the same time, payroll figures for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, pushing markets to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The implied probability fell from about 58% to 44%. The shift fed through to broader asset prices. The U.S. dollar index fell for a second straight week, while gold rose more than 7% on haven demand and lower-rate expectations. Silver gained more than 10%, and all three major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher. In the Middle East, reports said Iran and Oman had reached a temporary framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for an expected 60 days, though the arrangement still requires Iranian approval and disagreements with the U.S. over control of the waterway remain unresolved. Oil prices swung during the week, first dropping on hopes of easing tensions and then rebounding on supply-risk concerns. Separately, AI names and suppliers faced a valuation test as Unitree, SpaceX, SanDisk, Western Digital, DeepSeek, Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Apple all drew market attention.

BlockBeats reported on Aug. 8 that global markets were driven this week by a mix of macro data, Middle East developments, and fresh pressure points across the AI sector.

Weak payrolls data cools rate-hike expectations

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for July unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below market expectations for an increase of 80,000. Payroll data for May and June was also revised down by a combined 103,000, prompting markets to sharply reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The probability of a September hike dropped from about 58% to 44%.

The repricing was reflected across major assets. The U.S. dollar index fell for a second consecutive week. Gold gained more than 7% on haven demand and expectations for lower rates, while silver rose more than 10%. All three major U.S. stock indexes also finished the week higher.

Hormuz reopening framework adds another layer to oil volatility

On the geopolitical front, reports said Iran and Oman had reached a temporary framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The arrangement is expected to last 60 days, though it still requires Iranian approval. The report also said the U.S. and Iran remain divided over control of the strait.

Energy markets reacted with sharp swings. Oil prices first fell on expectations that tensions could ease, then rebounded as supply risks returned to focus.

AI trade faces valuation pressure despite strong growth

Among market themes, Unitree priced its STAR Market IPO at 150.8 yuan per share, implying an issuance valuation of about 61 billion yuan. Institutional subscription demand reached 2,618 times. SpaceX, in its first earnings report after listing, posted second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, though more than $18 billion in capital expenditures drew market attention.

SanDisk and Western Digital both reported results above expectations, but their shares fell sharply under valuation pressure, a sign that the AI storage segment has entered a phase defined by high growth and high expectations. DeepSeek also said it plans to raise API prices substantially, marking an adjustment to its low-cost strategy.

Elsewhere, global oil companies posted strong profit growth in the second quarter. Saudi Aramco reported net profit growth of 44% year over year, while Trump called on oil producers to lower gasoline prices. Wall Street firms are accelerating the use of AI in risk management, but they are also dealing with new cyberattack risks tied to AI tools. At the same time, Google DeepMind reorganized its core team, and OpenAI and Apple became locked in a legal dispute over AI talent movement, keeping the competition for AI talent in the spotlight.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.
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