Ahead of the April 29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, rate expectations have converged sharply. Data from CME FedWatch shows traders assigning a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The remaining 1% implies a small chance of a 25-basis-point hike, while no probability is being assigned to a cut.
The shift is notable compared with a month earlier, when markets still priced in a 6.2% chance of a hike as a hedge against stronger-than-expected economic data. That concern has since faded, reinforcing the view that the Fed is likely to stay on hold.
Prediction Markets Also Signal No Summer Move
Prediction platforms are telling a similar story. On Polymarket, traders see a 93% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the June 16–17 meeting. The market assigns a 4.5% probability to a 25-basis-point cut and just 1.6% to a hike. Total trading volume in that market has surpassed $10.5 million.
For the July 28–29 meeting, Polymarket prices an unchanged decision at 85%, with a 10% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 3.4% chance of a hike. Kalshi’s comparable July contract is closely aligned, showing an 84% probability of no change, 12% for a 25-basis-point cut, and 4% for a hike.
Inflation and Labor Data Limit Easing Expectations
The steady-rate outlook is being supported by recent macroeconomic data. According to the report, March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year over year, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%. That combination has left traders with little reason to expect the Fed to pivot quickly toward easing.
Broader annual pricing shows the same pattern. On Polymarket’s market for how many times the Fed will cut in 2026, total volume has reached $20.9 million since launch. As of late April, the most likely outcome is zero cuts at 40%, followed by one cut at 28% and two cuts at 16%. Kalshi’s equivalent market reflects nearly the same structure, suggesting investors still expect limited easing this year, if any.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on the next U.S. jobs report and upcoming CPI data for signs that pricing could shift. Until then, the dominant assumption across futures and prediction markets is that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold in the near term.