The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in the first FOMC meeting of 2026, matching broad market expectations. The immediate reaction was uneven. Spot gold surged past $5,500 per ounce for the first time, while Bitcoin, US equities, and the dollar index showed only limited movement.
The decision came after three straight rate cuts. Even though the outcome was widely expected, the committee was not fully aligned: two governors dissented and supported another 25-basis-point cut. In its statement, the Fed kept a cautious tone, saying the economy was still expanding steadily, inflation had eased but remained above target, and the labor market was cooling without showing systemic stress. The message was plain: policy has moved from active adjustment to a wait-and-check phase.
Rate path expectations remain unsettled
Fed funds market pricing now shows investors largely expect rates to stay unchanged this quarter, with the first cut pushed to June. Beyond that, forecasts diverge. According to the source material, Morgan Stanley, Citi, and Goldman Sachs expect cuts in June and September; Barclays sees possible cuts in June and December; JPMorgan still expects no cuts this year.
That split matters for asset pricing. With no fresh directional signal from the Fed, markets are reacting less to policy changes and more to changing expectations. In a setup like this, capital tends to move first toward the most widely accepted hedge.
Gold leads the move as crypto and stocks hold steady
Gold was the clearest winner after the announcement. The report says the metal climbed from just under $5,000 to above $5,500 in only four trading days, gaining more than $500 for a weekly rise of 10%. The move was tied not only to rates but also to persistent inflation, trade friction, political uncertainty, and broader policy tensions across global markets.
Other major assets were far quieter. US stocks stayed in a narrow range, Treasury yields only adjusted modestly, and the dollar index saw limited volatility. Crypto traded the same way. Bitcoin briefly slipped from $89,600 to around $89,000 after the decision, then recovered to roughly $89,300, a move of less than 1%. ETH hovered near $3,000, while Solana and XRP remained in their earlier trading ranges.
Attention shifts from cuts to the next Fed chair
Once the rate decision was out, market focus quickly moved to leadership. Polymarket data cited in the report shows Rick Rieder leading the betting market on who Donald Trump may nominate as the next Fed chair at about 34%, followed by Kevin Warsh at roughly 28% and current Fed governor Christopher Waller at around 20%.
Rick Rieder is described as the market’s preferred pragmatist. He currently serves as BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and has long been active in bond markets and macro allocation. Kevin Warsh is presented as a figure associated with discipline and central bank credibility. Christopher Waller, known for his academic background and hawkish reputation inside the Fed, drew notice this time because he voted against the hold and backed another rate cut.
On-chain data points to rising stress in Bitcoin
With the macro picture still unsettled, on-chain metrics are starting to show pressure. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average of Supply in Loss is rising again. The indicator tracks the share of Bitcoin whose current price is below its most recent on-chain transfer price, making it a tool for reading shifts in market structure.
The report notes that when Bitcoin reached its record high of $126,000 in October last year, the metric fell to a cycle low, reflecting broad profitability across the market. As price pulled back, Supply in Loss began climbing, suggesting losses are spreading from short-term traders toward longer-term holders. Historically, that kind of turn has often appeared in the early stages of a bull-bear transition. The report also makes clear that the metric has not yet entered a classic capitulation zone, so for now it signals risk rather than a confirmed trend.
Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, said, “Bitcoin’s near-term bullish catalysts still exist, but they are increasingly political rather than monetary.” With the Fed pausing and gold taking the spotlight, Bitcoin is still waiting for a clearer macro signal.