Global Macro Risk Accumulation: Supply Chain Disruption and Liquidity Drying Up
Metrics Ventures' latest monthly report states that persistent supply chain disruptions since 2022 have impaired the economic resilience of Japan, South Korea, and European countries, gradually trapping their monetary and fiscal policy autonomy. This fragility is accumulating momentum for future global capital market shocks. The report observes that market trends have revealed liquidity is drying up outside the AI and some non-ferrous metals sectors. Although a bubble burst is not imminent, fragile nations are increasingly doubling down on concentrated trades—a desperate move unlikely to end well given the current international political economy.
Crypto Market: MSTR Liquidation Risk and Bitcoin's Awkward Position
For the crypto market, the report notes that fragile global lines have been rapidly gathering as dark clouds above prices since late last year. For the first time, the market must seriously consider the possibility of MicroStrategy (MSTR) consecutively selling its Bitcoin holdings—its 800,000 BTC stash could exert significant downward pressure. Meanwhile, the lack of demand is making BTC increasingly cost-effective as a hedging short strategy against other assets. The report describes the mid-term outlook as 'drifting like duckweed in rain'. Technically, concentrated trading has reached the middle-to-late stage: Japan and Korea stock indices face key resistance in long-term channels; the dollar index breaks above its one-year resistance; the 10-year Treasury yield remains stable while the 2-year yield trends upward. Notably, SK Hynix's leveraged fund size has surpassed Tesla's, and massive white-collar workers are losing human capital premium, forced into capital markets' endless game. Countries deeply tied to global trade are paying the price for past trust—supply chain disintegration and trade alliance dissolution will severely impair their fiscal and monetary systems' ability to regulate the economy. 'Printing money doesn't print oil, copper, or optical modules,' the report warns.
Commodities and Precious Metals: Short-Term Pressure but Hidden Opportunities
For non-ferrous metals, the report believes gold and silver will face short-term headwinds from countries' strong willingness to exchange dollars for commodity inventories (exemplified by Turkey's central bank). However, this shock is precisely the 'deep squat' before the real rally of gold and silver. The complete failure of Hormuz events marks the beginning of dollar loosening, and post-rate-hike market shocks will ultimately lead to an easing future. Copper and small metals involve more complex dynamics; the report leans toward a sweet spot when rate-hike expectations reach extremes. For Bitcoin, the report calls for a serious assessment of MSTR's potential to activate the 'evil button' on its 800,000 BTC holdings under cash flow pressure. In a liquidity contraction scenario, BTC cannot escape unscathed. The bottom during this risk release may be 'unbelievable at this moment,' but deeper corrections are not a panicked fantasy. Risk brings opportunities, and the report shares these thoughts for fellow investors.
