Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Accumulating Fragility
Since 2022, global supply chain disruptions have continued to intensify, significantly reducing the economic resilience of major economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe, while also weakening their policy autonomy. Liquidity strains are becoming apparent, the US dollar continues to strengthen, and changes in Treasury yield spreads further indicate that systemic risks are accumulating rapidly. These macro signals suggest that the global economy is entering a highly fragile phase.
Nonferrous Metals: Short-Term Pressure, Medium-to-Long-Term Opportunity
Influenced by the macro environment, nonferrous metals (gold, silver, copper, etc.) face short-term price headwinds. However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, factors such as supply chain restructuring, energy transition, and geopolitical uncertainties provide structural support for both precious and industrial metals. Investors should monitor short-term volatility for potential entry points.
Bitcoin: Reassessing Positioning Under Dual Pressures
Bitcoin currently faces two major pressures: the potential liquidation risk from MicroStrategy (MSTR), which could trigger selling pressure; and heightened macro instability, which makes cryptocurrencies particularly vulnerable as risk assets. In this context, Bitcoin's traditional "digital gold" narrative is being challenged, and its asset positioning and market role require renewed assessment by market participants. In the near term, Bitcoin's correlation with macro risks has strengthened, while its safe-haven properties remain unproven.