Metrics Ventures has released its latest monthly report, focusing on the accumulating risks in global capital markets. The report argues that since 2022, persistent supply chain disruptions have eroded the economic resilience and monetary-fiscal policy autonomy of Japan, South Korea, and Europe, quietly building momentum for a future global market shock.
Global Macro Risks: Liquidity Drain and Concentrated Trading Bets
Market trends have clearly revealed that liquidity is drying up outside of AI and some non-ferrous metals sectors. Although a bubble burst is not imminent, fragile countries like Japan and South Korea are increasingly doubling down on concentrated trading—a desperate gamble that is unlikely to end well given the current geopolitical and economic landscape. Technically, the market has reached the middle-to-late stage of concentrated trading: Japanese and Korean stock markets, supported by state-driven transfer payments, have hit key resistance levels on their long-term channels; the US dollar index has broken through a one-year resistance level; the 10-year US Treasury yield remains stable while the 2-year yield shows an upward trend.
Currently, hedge funds for SK Hynix have surpassed those for Tesla in size, and a massive number of white-collar workers are rapidly losing their human capital valuation premiums, forced into the endless game of capital markets. Meanwhile, countries deeply tied to global trade and the trust-based capitalist globalization are paying for past faith: the collapse of supply chains and the disintegration of international trade alliances will severely impair their fiscal and monetary systems' ability to regulate their economies. You cannot print oil, copper, or optical modules—globalization has become a noose around their necks.
Risk Trigger: Algorithmic Liquidation by Leveraged Funds and Panic Contagion
The report warns that when liquidity unexpectedly contracts again—either in expectation or reality—massive leveraged funds will begin algorithmically liquidating positions during Asian trading hours. This shock will inevitably transmit to global fear indices, triggering larger waves. National unrest and fragile economies built on short-term fixes will become more apparent during turbulence, amplifying sentiment swings. This process will not end beautifully.
Non-Ferrous Metals: Gold and Silver Deep Squat Ahead of Major Rally, Copper and Others in Complex Game
For non-ferrous metals under constant tracking, gold and silver will face short-term pressure from countries' strong desire to exchange dollars for commodity inventories (most notably central banks like Turkey). However, this shock is precisely the deep squat before the true main uptrend for gold and silver. The complete failure at Hormuz marks the beginning of a weakening dollar, and the market shock after rate hikes will ultimately lead to a looser future. For copper and many small metals, the game is more complex. The report leans toward thinking that when rate hike expectations are priced to the extreme, there will be a sweet spot.
Bitcoin: MSTR Unloading Risk and Potential for a Deeper Bottom
For Bitcoin, the report for the first time seriously assesses whether MicroStrategy (MSTR) will pull the 'evil button' given its future cash flow pressures and the possibility of other participants front-running its 800,000 BTC holdings. In the macro risk release scenario described above, BTC will hardly stand alone. There is a need to more carefully consider Bitcoin's positioning and tradable directions during this risk release phase. The bottom of this cycle may seem unbelievable today, but a deeper adjustment level is not a panicked fantasy.
It was difficult to predict the Hormuz incident at the beginning of the year, nor the way global capital markets would enter the second half. But risks also bring opportunities. Stay strong.
