Bitcoin has fallen about 45% from its record high near $125,000, and Strategy founder Michael Saylor says the move looks similar to Apple’s 2013 “Valley of Despair.” Speaking on the Coin Stories program, he said that almost no successful technology investment avoids a 45% drawdown and the period of doubt that comes with it.
Saylor points to Apple’s 2013 slump as a reference case
Saylor highlighted Apple’s decline in 2013, when the stock dropped about 45% from its peak and its price-to-earnings ratio fell below 10x. At the time, the market treated Apple as a mature company with slowing growth, even though the iPhone already had a massive global user base. Confidence only began to recover later, with support from major investors including Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett, and Apple’s shares eventually returned to a growth path.
His argument is that such periods can become key entry windows for long-term investors. In his view, a deep correction does not automatically signal that the larger thesis is broken. Sometimes it appears during the stage when the market is reassessing the long-term value of an asset.
Bitcoin’s drawdown now mirrors the scale seen in major tech names
On Bitcoin, Saylor’s point was blunt: a 45% decline is not unusual for a successful technology asset. He said the current correction could last months or even years. If the low period were to stretch to seven years, he added, that would still not make Bitcoin’s path different from Apple’s earlier experience.
The comment fits his long-held position on Bitcoin. He sees volatility and retracements as a recurring feature of disruptive assets rather than proof of failure.
He says market structure is compressing volatility
Saylor also argued that Bitcoin’s market structure has changed from prior cycles. He said derivatives activity has been shifting from offshore venues to regulated U.S. markets, which has helped narrow the size of price swings. In earlier bear markets, Bitcoin often suffered declines of 70% to 80%. Against that backdrop, a drop of 40% to 50% now looks, in his description, like compressed volatility rather than an extreme breakdown.
He still sees pressure points. Traditional banks, he said, remain unwilling to extend enough credit against Bitcoin holdings, pushing some investors toward shadow banking channels or rehypothecation structures. In stressed conditions, those arrangements can intensify selling pressure.
Quantum computing fears and developer attacks are labeled as FUD
On whether quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s network security, Saylor said there is no material short-term risk. He argued that it would take at least 10 more years before quantum systems could seriously threaten current cryptography. By then, governments and financial institutions would also be moving to post-quantum cryptography, and Bitcoin software could be upgraded through global consensus.
He also referred to criticism aimed at Bitcoin core developers in connection with controversy tied to Jeffrey Epstein files. Saylor described those claims as fear, uncertainty, and doubt, and said they were similar in nature to earlier disputes over energy consumption and block size.