Markets split quickly as the Middle East conflict entered its third day: oil and gold moved higher, while crypto sold off. The source says joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran were followed by Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and U.S. interests in the region, prompting a rapid repricing across commodities, currencies, bonds, equities, and digital assets.
Oil reacts first as Strait of Hormuz disruption feeds risk premium
Energy posted the sharpest move. Brent crude briefly climbed to about $80 a barrel before easing to $78-$79, still up nearly 8%. U.S. WTI crude also rose above $72, with a similar gain of around 8%. The report links the move to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. Analysts cited in the source warn that if the conflict widens, crude could head toward $90 or even $100.
Safe-haven demand also pushed metals higher. Gold added 2.31% over the week and was trading around $5,399-$5,400, close to the source’s cited January 2026 all-time high of $5,589. Silver gained roughly 2% to $95.5 and was described as showing the strongest year-on-year rise at 200%. Copper, lithium, and platinum were also in positive territory. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index traded near 98.00-98.32, up about 0.71% and marking a five-week high. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 3.93% before stabilizing around 3.96%-3.97%.
Bitcoin rebounds from panic selling, but still trades like a risk asset
Crypto did not attract the same defensive bid. According to the source, total crypto market capitalization has dropped from $3.28 trillion to $2.27 trillion since tensions escalated in mid-January, a decline of more than 12%. Bitcoin fell into the $63,000-$65,000 range during the initial wave of selling, then recovered toward $66,000-$67,000. That bounce showed some resilience, though the report argues BTC is still being treated more like a high-beta asset than a traditional hedge.
Ethereum traded near $1,950-$1,970, while major altcoins including Solana and XRP also moved lower. The source contrasts this with earlier market behavior, when some investors viewed Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge. In more recent episodes, though, BTC has often moved in line with equities during risk-off trading and only stabilized after broader markets found footing.
The report points to structural trust issues inside crypto
To explain why physical assets are rallying while digital assets are not, the source highlights several factors. One is concentration: it says a few mining pools control more than 50% of Bitcoin’s hash rate, while centralized exchanges dominate trading activity. Another is fraud and illicit finance, which the report says have damaged trust. It cites $17 billion stolen in crypto scams in 2025 and $158 billion in illicit flows, up 145% year over year.
The source also mentions hard forks used by some platforms after hacks or exploits, arguing that such responses can weaken crypto’s original promise of irreversibility and can split blockchains. It adds that the launch of more centralized tokens, along with trading activity by governments that hold crypto, has affected sentiment as well. The report gives Bhutan’s sale of Bitcoin during panic conditions as one example.
For now, capital is rotating toward classic havens
The source’s near-term read is simple: investors remain cautious, oil and gold are benefiting from uncertainty, and crypto and equities face short-term pressure. What happens next depends largely on whether the conflict expands and whether clearer diplomatic signals emerge. Until then, traders across commodities, stocks, and digital assets are likely to remain on alert.