Bitcoin’s Leading Relationship Comes Under Review
According to ChainCatcher, Bloomberg Intelligence chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone said in a recent post that Bitcoin had previously led risk assets clearly during earlier upside cycles, but that this leading relationship may now be extending in reverse. In his latest comments, McGlone said Bitcoin once “led risk assets higher,” while it now “may also lead them lower.”
McGlone based his view on a same-scale comparison chart of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, with Bitcoin amplified by 10 times for the comparison. On that basis, he said overall beta assets may be heading into a down year in 2026. His comments frame Bitcoin not only as a crypto asset with its own price cycle, but also as a signal within a broader risk-asset cycle.
Midterm Election Cycles and Structural Pressure
McGlone emphasized that since 2009, the S&P 500’s annual total return has fallen only in 2018 and 2022. Both of those years coincided with Bitcoin downturn cycles and also aligned with U.S. midterm election cycles. In his view, the current market differs because structural pressures are accumulating at the same time.
He noted that inflation has returned as a core political issue. At the same time, equity-market volatility has remained low for an extended period, while risk indicators for commodities such as gold and crude oil have continued to rise. McGlone described this as a combination of “low-volatility stocks + high-risk commodities,” adding that such a combination has been relatively rare in history.
Gold, Treasuries and the Missing Confirmation Signal
McGlone also said that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of “mean reversion,” which may indicate that the risk-asset cycle is moving into a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have fallen by about 50% from their 2025 highs, around the $126,000 area, while the U.S. Treasury total return index may be forming a staged bottom from levels near its lows since 1983.
For now, McGlone said the market still lacks a key confirmation signal: a decline in the S&P 500-to-GDP ratio from levels close to the highs seen since 1928. If that indicator begins to turn, he said it could mean that a broader risk-asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment phase.