Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone said Monday that the ongoing crypto market collapse may not be an isolated event but a precursor to broader financial stress, warning that Bitcoin could slide back toward $10,000 and foreshadow the next U.S. recession.
'Buy the Dip' Mentality May Be Breaking Down
In a post on X, McGlone stated the long-standing 'buy the dip' mindset that has supported risk assets since 2008 could be unraveling as digital assets weaken and volatility dynamics shift. 'Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos. The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over,' he wrote. Bitcoin recovered from a low of $65,395 on Feb. 12 to $70,841 by Feb. 15, but was hovering around $68,800 by Monday afternoon. The broader crypto market also bled, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy coins Monero and Zcash dropped 10% and 8% respectively in the past 24 hours.
Macro Indicators Flash Red
McGlone highlighted several macro indicators reflecting elevated risk. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to GDP is at its highest level in roughly a century, while 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sits at its lowest in about eight years. He described the 'crypto bubble' as 'imploding,' adding that 'Trump euphoria' has peaked and is contributing to contagion. Meanwhile, gold and silver are 'grabbing alpha' at a pace unseen in half a century, with rising volatility that could 'trickle up' into equities.
Bitcoin's Anchor to the S&P 500
McGlone shared a chart comparing Bitcoin divided by 10 (for scaling) with the S&P 500. As of Feb. 13, both were below 7,000 on his graphic. He argued that 'volatile and beta-dependent' Bitcoin is unlikely to stay above that level if broader equity beta weakens. The first 'normal reversion' level he identified is S&P 500 at 5,600, equivalent to roughly $56,000 for Bitcoin under his scaling. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for Bitcoin to revert toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market.
Opinion Split: AdLunam Co-Founder Challenges Thesis
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone's thesis assumes market extremes must resolve through collapse and that Bitcoin's equity beta guarantees a proportional crash. Fernandes did not directly refute the prediction but emphasized that McGlone's framework overlooks structural changes within the crypto market itself. The market awaits more macro signals, with Bitcoin's short-term trajectory highly dependent on Fed policy and risk appetite shifts.