Mizuho has cut its price target for Gemini from $26 to $12, pointing to weak trading performance as the main reason behind the downgrade. Analysts Dan Dolev and Andrew Jenkins said lower cryptocurrency prices and softer trading volumes are likely to weigh on Gemini’s near-term revenue growth.
Trading slowdown pressures revenue
According to the report, Gemini’s business remains exposed to the broader cooling in crypto market activity. As digital asset prices decline and investor participation weakens, trading-related income is expected to remain under pressure. That softer operating backdrop was a key factor in Mizuho’s sharply reduced target.
Credit card growth not enough to offset weakness
Mizuho noted that Gemini has continued to see growth in its credit card segment, but said that momentum is not sufficient to fully counterbalance the downturn in trading. In other words, while diversification efforts are visible, the company’s expanding non-trading business has not yet become strong enough to make up for pressure on its core exchange activity.
Revenue mix shifts as valuation multiples compress
The report also highlighted a change in Gemini’s revenue composition, with service-based income now approaching half of total revenue. That shift suggests a broader business mix, but it comes at a time when valuation multiples for exchange-related firms have also compressed. Mizuho said this combination of weaker trading conditions and lower sector valuations contributed to the revised target.
Gemini’s stock had previously fallen to a low of $5.50 before posting a modest recovery. Overall, the target cut underscores a cautious market view on the short-term earnings outlook and valuation potential for crypto trading platforms.