More than 51% of Bitcoin's supply is now sitting at a loss. The metric is calculated by tracking the last on-chain transfer price of each coin and comparing it with the current market price. If Bitcoin trades below that last moved price, that portion of supply is counted as underwater. Because of that, the indicator offers a direct view of how much of the market is under cost pressure rather than relying on sentiment surveys.
How the cost basis metric measures underwater supply
The article defines cost basis as the price at which a coin last changed hands on the blockchain, while the loss ratio is the share of total supply whose current price is below that level. That makes the indicator useful for observing actual holder positions and realized prices. When the ratio rises, a larger group of investors is holding Bitcoin below cost. Some may consider selling into weakness; others may keep holding and wait for a recovery.
A rare reading in Bitcoin's post-2010 history
According to Onchainmind, reliable Bitcoin price records go back to 2010. Over roughly 93% of that period, more than half of the circulating supply remained in profit. That is why a reading with over 50% of supply in loss stands out as unusual in historical terms.
The report also says periods where supply in profit and loss is split close to evenly have often matched major inflection points and bear market lows in Bitcoin's cycle. Similar conditions appeared around the lows of 2015, during the sharp selloff in 2018, and after the 2022 FTX collapse. The current chart has now moved back into that same critical zone.
Closer to historical bottoms, but not a call for a fast rebound
Past cycles show that this type of reading does not automatically lead to a quick recovery. Bitcoin has often spent extended periods trading sideways in a volatile range after entering similar territory. During those phases, the market absorbed losses and ownership gradually shifted. The process took time.
The article argues that the current setup may point to a prolonged grind instead of a sharp capitulation move. In some cycles, the market did not print an obvious final low right away and instead moved in choppy conditions for weeks or months. This dataset on its own cannot identify an exact bottom, but it does suggest Bitcoin is trading much closer to the levels historically associated with lows than with highs.