Morgan Stanley projects AI capex to hit $1.4 trillion by 2028

Morgan Stanley projects AI capex to hit $1.4 trillion by 2028

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News Editor
2026-07-13 10:33:30
Morgan Stanley said in a July 10 report that combined capital spending by five hyperscalers — Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and SpaceX — could reach $1.4 trillion by 2028, more than tripling from 2025 levels. The bank also expects available compute capacity to expand from 30GW to 120GW over the same period. Meta was named the bank’s top pick, with its 2027 and 2028 capex forecasts raised to $225 billion and $250 billion. Morgan Stanley highlighted Meta’s API opportunity, saying Muse Spark 1.1 is priced 30% to 86% below peers and that every 100MW of compute could generate about $8 billion in revenue and roughly $1.9 in incremental EPS. The report added that the key question in the compute race is shifting from how much capacity companies can build to how much they can sell. Morgan Stanley maintained overweight ratings on Meta, Amazon and Google.
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Morgan Stanley raises its AI infrastructure spending outlook

According to TechFlow, citing Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley said in a July 10 report that combined capital expenditures by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and SpaceX are expected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2028, more than three times the 2025 level.

The report also said available compute capacity could increase from 30GW to 120GW.

Meta named top pick

Morgan Stanley listed Meta as its top pick and raised its capex forecasts for the company to $225 billion in 2027 and $250 billion in 2028.

The bank put special focus on Meta’s API opportunity. It said Muse Spark 1.1 is priced 30% to 86% below peers, and that each 100MW of compute could generate about $8 billion in revenue and around $1.9 in incremental EPS.

Morgan Stanley said the competitive edge in the compute race is shifting from how much capacity companies can build to how much they can sell. It kept overweight ratings on Meta, Amazon and Google.

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