Morgan Stanley has downgraded Coinbase Global (COIN) to underweight from equal weight and cut its price target to $120 from $258, according to CNBC. The new target implies roughly 16% downside from last Friday’s close. In a Monday note to clients, analyst Michael Cyprys said Coinbase continues to pursue a broader strategy, but weaker recent trading trends, softer forward revenue expectations, and uncertainty around the crypto market make the company’s "earnings recovery" case harder to support. Cyprys said crypto trading on Coinbase weakened in October. Based on activity through Oct. 25, the bank estimated fourth-quarter transaction revenue at about $165 million, which would translate to roughly $607 million on an annualized basis, about 11% below the consensus estimate of around $685 million. Morgan Stanley also cut its 2027 revenue forecast for Coinbase by 28% and lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast by 47%. The call stands apart from broader Wall Street sentiment: LSEG data shows that among 41 analysts covering Coinbase, 26 rate the stock buy or strong buy, while 13 rate it hold.
Morgan Stanley has downgraded Coinbase Global (COIN) to underweight from equal weight and lowered its price target to $120 from $258, CNBC reported. Based on last Friday’s close, the revised target suggests about 16% downside.
In a Monday note to clients, analyst Michael Cyprys said the company is still pushing ahead with a broader strategy, but weaker recent trading trends, softer forward revenue expectations, and uncertainty around the outlook for the crypto market make the "earnings recovery" narrative harder to defend.
October trading weakened as Q4 transaction revenue tracks below consensus
Cyprys said crypto trading on Coinbase had weakened in October. Through Oct. 25, Morgan Stanley estimated fourth-quarter transaction revenue at about $165 million. At that pace, the annualized figure would be roughly $607 million, about 11% below the market consensus estimate of around $685 million.
COIN shares have fallen about 22% over the past month. The report also said crypto trading could slow further after rival Binance suffered a hack of about $6 billion last week, a development Morgan Stanley said could weigh on Coinbase’s earnings and stock price.
Morgan Stanley cuts 2027 forecasts as its call diverges from Wall Street
Morgan Stanley has reduced its 2027 revenue forecast for Coinbase by 28% and cut its adjusted EBITDA forecast by 47%.
That view runs against the broader Wall Street stance. LSEG data shows that of the 41 analysts covering Coinbase, 26 have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock, while 13 rate it hold.
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