Morgan Stanley no longer expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen this month, adding to concerns around global energy transport and broader financial markets. According to a post from Watcher.Guru on X, the Wall Street bank, which manages $2 trillion in assets, has turned more pessimistic on the near-term outlook for the key oil shipping route.
Prediction market points to weak confidence
Data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows a similar view. The source material says the market-implied chance of the strait returning to “normal traffic this month” has dropped to 23%. A section heading in the same source mentions 30%, but the body text cites 23% as the latest figure. Either way, current market positioning reflects low confidence in a reopening before month-end.
Energy supply concerns remain in focus
The report says escalating conflict in the Middle East has intensified pressure on the global crude oil supply chain, with the indefinite blockage of the strait seen as a major risk. As one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints, any disruption to traffic through Hormuz carries weight far beyond the region. That is why both institutional analysis and market pricing are being watched closely.
The available material does not include Morgan Stanley’s full report or a detailed timeline for any reopening scenario. What it does show is clear enough: both the bank’s revised expectation and Polymarket pricing now point to the same conclusion, that the odds of normal shipping resuming within this month remain low.